📰 US Dollar Index Hits Highest Since April 2025; Crude Settles At Two-Week Peak; US Earnings Season Kicks Off Today

Key Snapshot

· 💵 US Dollar Index rose 0.37% to 102.58, marking the highest level since April 2025. Euro fell 0.4% to 1.1156 USD, near a 17-month low.

· 🛢️ WTI climbed 2.06% to $93.74/bbl, Brent gained 1.84% to $106.65/bbl. Both benchmarks closed at two-week highs.

· 📊 US Q3 earnings season kicks off today, led by major banks including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley. Apple hosts smart home product launch event.

I. Market Outlook

Core Events

- Dollar Index Hits Peak Since April 2025: The US Dollar Index advanced 0.37% to 102.58 while euro slumped to 1.1156 USD, close to a 17-month trough. US Treasury markets were closed for holiday, yet the dollar retained its bullish momentum. → S&P 500 edged down 0.06% at 7807.24; Dow Jones rose 0.38% at 51850.55; Nasdaq dropped 0.44% at 27245.90.

- Crude Oil Settles At Two-Week High: WTI +2.06% to $93.74/bbl, Brent +1.84% to $106.65/bbl. Trump announced an “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine, while OPEC cut its 2025 oil demand growth forecast to 400,000 barrels per day. → Oil prices remain elevated amid supply-demand tug-of-war.

Exclusive View

The dollar’s surge to the highest since April 2025 and euro’s proximity to a 17-month low signal markets keep pricing in additional Fed rate hikes, with European economy under heavier strain from energy shocks. OPEC slashed its annual demand growth projection from 1.4mn bpd to 400k bpd, a sharp indicator of weakening demand, yet crude still closed at two-week highs due to supply disruptions; the battle between supply and demand forces intensifies. US earnings season begins today, and bank net interest margin outlook plus credit loss provisions will serve as a critical gauge for market views on economic prospects.

II. Overnight Market Performance

—— US Equities: S&P 500 -0.06% at 7807.24; Dow Jones +0.38% at 51850.55; Nasdaq -0.44% at 27245.90.

—— European Equities: STOXX 600 rose 0.65% to 635.65.

—— Fixed Income: US Treasury market closed for holiday.

—— Commodities: WTI Nov contract +2.06% to $93.74/bbl; Brent +1.84% to $106.65/bbl, both at two-week closing highs. COMEX Gold -0.48% to $4195.9/oz; Silver -0.78% to $60.57/oz.

—— FX: US Dollar Index +0.37% to 102.58, highest since April 2025. Euro -0.4% to 1.1156 USD, near 17-month low.

—— Crypto: Bitcoin quoted at $82,625.12, little changed from last Friday.

III. Macro News

1. 🕊️ Trump Announces Russia-Ukraine “Energy Ceasefire”; Russia Hopes For Lasting Peace: Zelenskyy voiced support, while Moscow stated it seeks enduring peace rather than a temporary truce, and relevant contacts remain ongoing.

Insight: The “energy ceasefire” marks the first concrete step toward de-escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war. However, Russia’s emphasis on lasting peace instead of ceasefire shows the two sides still hold divergent understandings of the truce.

2. 🛢️ OPEC Cuts 2025 Oil Demand Growth Forecast From 1.4mn bpd To 400k bpd: Secretary General Haitham Al-Ghais said OPEC substantially revised down demand growth estimates considering developments throughout the year.

Insight: The 75% cut to demand growth forecast is a strong sign of weakening demand, but crude still hit two-week highs amid supply-side shocks. The tug-of-war between supply and demand is intensifying.

3. 💰 BofA: Gold To Average $4,000/oz In Q4, $4,813/oz In 2027: Gold remains under near-term downward pressure until risks of oil price spikes tied to Iran conflict ease.

IV. Global Corporate News

1. 💾 Microsoft Unveils New In-House AI Chips, Plans To Deploy Over 1 Million Units Next Year: The chips will power its internal AI services. The trend of hyperscalers building custom silicon accelerates, posing long-term challenges to Nvidia’s dominant market position.

2. 📈 Lianxun Instruments: Q1-Q3 Net Profit Forecast Surges 1866%–2073% YoY: Explosive AI computing demand drives sharp rise in demand for optical communication and testing equipment.

V. Key Watchlist For Today

· 📊 US Q3 Earnings Season Kickoff: Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and other large banks release results. Markets focus on net interest margin outlook and Q4 credit loss provisioning.

· 🌐 IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings Release World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report: Global growth forecasts and financial stability assessments are highly critical amid energy shocks and rising interest rates.

· 📱 Apple “Welcome Home” Smart Home Launch Event: Expected to unveil new Apple TV 4K, HomePod mini and new home hub devices.

· ⚖️ UK Parliament AI Security Hearing: Meta, Google, OpenAI and Anthropic appear together before the same legislative panel for questioning.

· 💾 SEMICON West opens in San Francisco with advanced packaging summit, while OCP Global Summit continues in San Jose.