USD/JPY, EUR/USD, AUD/USD & WTI Crude: Full Technical Analysis Amid BOJ Hike and US-Iran Supply Shifts

The Bank of Japan lifted its benchmark rate 25bps to 1.00%, the highest reading since 1995, while announcing a pause to JGB tapering starting April 2027. The balanced tightening-cum-liquidity stance caps sharp yen appreciation.

Markets now brace for the Fed policy decision and US retail sales data, while optimism over the US-Iran peace deal weighs on the US dollar and crude oil prices. Below is dedicated technical analysis for major FX pairs and WTI crude.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

USD/JPY hovers near the critical intervention threshold at 160.50 in Asian trade. Even after the BOJ delivered a 25bp hike to a 31-year peak rate, Japan’s interest rates stay far below US yields. The central bank’s dovish adjustment to its bond tapering schedule weighs on the yen and lends underlying support to the pair. Meanwhile, broad US dollar softness driven by US-Iran détente optimism and pre-Fed caution caps steep rallies.

Spot USD/JPY edges slightly lower to 160.14 at press time, sustaining a short-term bullish bias above the rising 20-day EMA at 159.69. Daily RSI sits at 58, reflecting solid upside momentum without overheating, meaning buyers still dominate near-term price action.

A break below the 20-day EMA near 159.70 will erase bullish momentum, triggering a deeper correction toward the May 20 trough at 158.60. On the upside, the April 30 peak at 160.73 acts as the primary resistance barrier.

Support: 159.70 ➝ 158.60

Resistance: 160.50 ➝ 160.73

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD trades flat around 1.1610 in early Asian hours. Market participants stay neutral ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy verdict due later Wednesday, alongside the release of US May Retail Sales figures, both set to steer near-term directional moves for the major currency pair.

The instrument has built firm demand support around 1.1500 over the past year. A decisive breakout above 1.1600 will clear a smooth upside path, while a breakdown below 1.1500 signals a reversal of the rebound trend.

Support: 1.1500 ➝ 1.1400 ➝ 1.1300

Resistance: 1.1800 ➝ 1.2000 ➝ 1.2200

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD consolidates above the mid-0.7000 range through Asian trading, with all directional bets put on hold ahead of Wednesday’s two-day FOMC meeting conclusion. Optimism surrounding the US-Iran interim peace deal keeps US dollar bulls subdued; combined with the RBA’s hawkish pause delivered on Tuesday, the pair receives mild supportive tailwinds.

On the daily chart, AUD/USD prints at 0.7072, trapped beneath the 100-day SMA (0.7085) and 55-day SMA (0.7124), keeping the short-term tilt bearish despite prices sitting comfortably above the 200-day SMA at 0.6847. Daily RSI reads roughly 45, pointing to weak, neutral momentum rather than oversold conditions, while an ADX of 29 confirms the prevailing downtrend remains technically valid.

Sustained clearance above the 100-day and 55-day SMAs will ease bearish pressure and unlock higher resistance zones. To the downside, solid support lies at 0.6833, with deeper downside targets at 0.6660 and 0.6593 if sellers regain control.

Support: 0.7000 ➝ 0.6833 ➝ 0.6660

Resistance: 0.7085 ➝ 0.7124 ➝ 0.7278

WTI Crude Technical Analysis

WTI crude extended its slide to fresh three-month lows under $78 on Tuesday, as preliminary details of the US-Iran peace accord fuel market bets on the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The US benchmark shed nearly 5% in the prior session and has lost close to 25% across the past four weeks, changing hands near $75.80 during Wednesday’s Asian session.

The two sides plan to sign an interim agreement in Switzerland this Friday, which will unlock economic relief for Iran and immediately resume the nation’s crude exports. Safe passage for oil tankers through the Hormuz shipping lane is expected once the pact takes effect, drastically boosting global crude supply prospects and weighing heavily on oil valuations.

If WTI cannot recapture the $80 threshold in the near term, further downside toward $75.0 and $68.0 becomes likely.

Support: 75.0 ➝ 72.0 ➝ 68.0

Resistance: 80.0 ➝ 85.0 ➝ 96.0

pic source : trading view