USD/JPY Stays Pressured Near Multi-Decade Lows; Intervention Risks Limit Losses

The yen resumed its decline during Tuesday’s Asian session. Traders grew bolder shorting the currency amid zero visible intervention from Japanese authorities, yet fears of sudden official yen-buying capped excessive depreciation.

USD/JPY edged lower below 162.00 in early Asian trading, lingering near multi-year troughs after printing fresh overnight lows.

The US dollar trades on a fragile footing overall, as disappointing US payroll data continues to curb market hawkishness. Markets now price only 29 basis points of cumulative Fed tightening by December, down from 38 bps seen one week prior. Cooling rate hike expectations prevent aggressive USD bullish breakout, indirectly limiting USD/JPY upside.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia currency strategist Carol Kong notes current market rate pricing remains less hawkish than the bank’s baseline outlook, which still expects a December Fed lift-off. The discrepancy leaves room for volatility ahead.

Investors are now squarely focused on Wednesday’s June FOMC meeting minutes. Given Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s reluctance to offer explicit forward guidance, the release is expected to deliver limited directional cues, keeping USD sentiment data-dependent.

Technically, USD/JPY trades negative under 162.00 in Tuesday’s Asian session. The pair faces dual pressure from fading Fed hike bets and geopolitical caution, while persistent intervention speculation underpins the yen and restrains deeper bearish extension.

On the 4-hour chart, price failed to hold above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the May–June rally, tilting the short-term bias mildly lower. The 100-period EMA spanning 160.45–160.50 acts as solid immediate trend support, anchoring the pair within a neutral consolidation range.

The 4-hour RSI hovers around 33, reflecting muted bearish momentum rather than aggressive downside pressure. For bulls, a sustained break above the 23.6% Fib resistance is required to relieve near-term weakness, opening a bounce toward 161.75–161.80 before retesting the 162.00 psychological level.

Support levels: 161.59 (38.2% Fib)→160.75(100-period EMA)

A decisive break below the above support zone will extend the retracement from USD/JPY’s four-decade peak. Further downside targets sit at 158.93 and 158.00, with deeper structural support located at 156.68 and 154.99.