$852 Billion Burn? AI Critic Warns OpenAI Could Face a ‘Lehman Moment’

Could the AI boom be heading toward its biggest stress test yet?

Technology commentator Ed Zitron believes OpenAI's rapid expansion is creating an unsustainable business model, arguing that the company could eventually face a "Lehman Brothers moment" for the AI industry.

In a recent analysis, Zitron estimated that OpenAI could burn more than $852 billion by 2030, driven by soaring infrastructure costs and an ever-growing need for capital.

He also estimates the company could spend more than $50 billion on computing this year alone, raising questions about whether future revenue can keep pace with rising expenses.

According to Zitron, OpenAI's biggest challenge isn't building better AI models—it's turning them into a profitable business.

He argues that subscription revenue remains under pressure, advertising opportunities are limited, and the cost of serving increasingly powerful AI models continues to climb.

The warning extends beyond OpenAI itself.

Zitron believes a sharp slowdown in AI investment could ripple across the technology sector, affecting chipmakers, cloud providers and data centre operators that have invested heavily in AI infrastructure. Companies with significant AI-related capital spending could face the greatest pressure if demand falls short of expectations.

Not everyone shares that view.

Veteran investor Howard Marks recently said he has become more optimistic about artificial intelligence, arguing that its capabilities are unlike previous technological breakthroughs and that AI's long-term potential remains compelling.

For investors, the debate highlights one key question: can AI investment continue to justify the enormous capital being deployed?

As spending on chips, cloud infrastructure and large language models continues to climb, markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to any signs that AI demand is slowing—or proving stronger than expected.