Australian Dollar Holds Near 0.6900 Following Weak Trade Data Ahead of US Jobs Report

The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) traded near 0.6900 on Thursday, remaining within a relatively narrow range after declining through much of June, as weaker-than-expected Australian trade data coincided with continued strength in the US Dollar ahead of the June US Nonfarm Payrolls report.

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australia recorded a trade deficit of A$3.018 billion in May, compared with market expectations for a surplus of A$2.2 billion. The result also marked a reversal from April's revised trade surplus of A$1.383 billion.

The weaker trade balance was primarily driven by a 6.9% month-on-month decline in exports following April's increase. Shipments of non-monetary gold and metal ores, which are widely viewed as indicators of demand from China, contributed to the decline. Meanwhile, imports increased by 2.6% during the month.

The US Dollar continued to find support from resilient US economic data and sustained investor demand for US assets. Market participants also assessed recent comments from Federal Reserve officials, which suggested that inflation pressures had moderated while leaving expectations for additional policy tightening later this year broadly unchanged.

The upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls report is expected to provide additional guidance for interest rate expectations. Market consensus forecasts approximately 110,000 new jobs. A stronger-than-expected employment report could reinforce support for the US Dollar, while weaker labor market data could provide near-term support for the Australian Dollar.

For market participants across Southeast Asia, Australia's export performance is often viewed as an indicator of broader regional commodity demand, particularly because of Australia's close trade relationship with China. Continued weakness in export activity may remain an important factor for regional market sentiment.

From a technical perspective, AUD/USD remained near support around 0.6865. A sustained move below this area could shift market attention toward the broader 2026 low near 0.6630, while resistance remains near recent trading highs.

Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics, TradingEconomics, CME Group FedWatch. This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.