Gold Holds Near $4,000 Ahead of US Jobs Report as Markets Assess Rate Outlook

Gold (XAU/USD) traded with a modest positive bias for a second consecutive session, holding near the $4,000 level during Thursday's European session as a slight pullback in the US Dollar provided support ahead of the June US Nonfarm Payrolls report.

Market participants continued to assess recent comments from Federal Reserve officials alongside incoming economic data. Investors generally viewed the latest remarks as reflecting a relatively less hawkish communication tone, while expectations for additional policy tightening later this year remained broadly intact.

According to CME FedWatch data, markets continued to assign a significant probability to at least one additional interest rate increase before year-end. Those expectations may continue to limit further gains in gold despite recent price stabilization.

Recent US economic indicators presented mixed signals. ADP reported that private-sector employment increased by 98,000 in June, below both the previous reading and market expectations, while the ISM Manufacturing PMI softened. Meanwhile, the ISM Prices Paid Index declined notably, potentially indicating some moderation in input-cost pressures.

Geopolitical developments also remained in focus. Ongoing diplomatic discussions involving Iran and continued military activity in Ukraine continued to attract market attention and may provide ongoing support for demand for traditional safe-haven assets, including gold.

For market participants across Southeast Asia, gold prices remain sensitive to changes in US interest rate expectations, movements in the US Dollar, and broader geopolitical developments. A weaker-than-expected employment report could reinforce expectations for a more cautious monetary policy outlook and provide support for gold prices, while stronger labor market data could strengthen the US Dollar and weigh on precious metals.

From a technical perspective, gold remained below its 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). Resistance is located in the $4,096–4,112 area, while the year-to-date low near $3,941 continues to represent an important support level. Despite the recent rebound, broader technical indicators continued to reflect a cautious near-term outlook.

Sources: TradingEconomics, CME Group FedWatch, ADP, ISM, US Bureau of Labor Statistics. This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.