Bitcoin Jumps Toward $64K as Spot Demand — Not Leverage — Drives Recovery

VG Markets · 2026-07-10T10:19:45Z
Bitcoin Jumps Toward $64K as Spot Demand — Not Leverage — Drives Recovery

Bitcoin rose 1.9% to $63,352.8 by 21:09 GMT Thursday, trading roughly 9% above June's monthly close, as easing U.S.-Iran tensions and lower oil prices supported broader risk sentiment, according to Investing.com data.

The rebound followed a nearly 2% decline a day earlier after U.S. President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran "over" following additional U.S. strikes. Market sentiment later improved after Trump said Tehran had reached out to resume negotiations.

Three market developments are drawing attention, according to Nexo Dispatch analyst Iliya Kalchev:

  1. Spot-driven demand: Bitcoin futures open interest declined to around $30 billion, according to Glassnode, even as prices moved higher. This suggests the recent advance has been supported primarily by spot market demand rather than increased leveraged positioning.
  2. Exchange supply tightening: Bitcoin held on centralized exchanges fell to approximately 6.6% of circulating supply, the lowest level since 2017. Historically, similar reductions in exchange balances have coincided with periods of stronger market performance by limiting readily available selling liquidity.
  3. Volatility easing: Thirty-day implied volatility declined after a two-day increase, indicating that market-implied volatility has recently moderated.

Adding to the broader backdrop, the Federal Reserve's June FOMC minutes were viewed by some market participants as less hawkish than expected, helping ease concerns over future interest-rate policy despite ongoing inflation risks linked to energy prices.

Major altcoins also moved higher, with Ethereum gaining 0.6% to $1,749.50, XRP rising 0.6% to $1.0975, Solana advancing 1.2%, and Dogecoin adding 1.4%.

Market focus: The combination of declining futures open interest and rising spot prices has historically been viewed by some market participants as reflecting stronger spot demand than leverage-driven market activity. Market participants will likely continue monitoring whether Bitcoin can maintain momentum around the $64,000 level, while developments related to U.S.-Iran relations remain one of the primary drivers of cryptocurrency market volatility.

Sources: Investing.com, Reuters, Glassnode, Nexo Dispatch