Daily Commodities Highlights – Jul 01 – US crude output hits record 13.93M b/d; gold holds below $4,000

📌 What Moves Markets Today

US crude output reached a record 13.93 million barrels per day in April, adding to supply pressures. Goldman sees a surplus of over 300,000 barrels per day as supply outpaces demand. Gold remains below $4,000, pressured by Fed rate hike bets and a strong dollar. WTI is hovering near $69.50, with US-Iran Doha talks weighing on prices.

🔴 Bearish for oil as supply surges and demand concerns linger.

🔴 Bearish for gold as Fed hike expectations and dollar strength persist.

🔥 Quick Takes

Energy

- ECB chief economist Lane: Oil futures show prices staying elevated for years, raising economic costs → A warning. Higher energy costs are here to stay.

- EIA: US April crude output hit a record 13.93 million b/d → Supply is surging. A bearish signal for oil prices.

- Australia's largest green hydrogen project approved to move forward → A long-term energy transition move. Not an immediate market driver.

- Goldman: Replenishment won't offset the supply flood; crude surplus could exceed 300,000 b/d → A bearish call. Supply is outpacing demand.

- Shell LNG outlook: If Strait traffic normalizes this summer, 2026 LNG trade could match last year, with growth expected to resume in 2027 → A neutral-to-bearish outlook. No immediate supply shock.

- Citi: Expects TTF gas at €36.5/MWh ($12.4/MMBtu), JKM LNG at $13.5/MMBtu, and Henry Hub at $3.2/MMBtu in H2 2026. Sees TTF at €27/MWh ($9.2/MMBtu), JKM at $9.5/MMBtu, and Henry Hub at $2.8/MMBtu in 2027. → A clear bearish outlook for gas prices. The trend is lower.

Metals & Mining

- South32 to sell most aluminum assets to Alcoa in a deal worth up to $5.6 billion → A major industry consolidation. Could reshape the aluminum market.

- CICC: Gold may have already overpriced the rate hike expectations → A call that the worst may be priced in. But no immediate catalyst for a rebound.

- Dollar strength weighs on commodities; aluminum hits lowest since February → Industrial metals are under pressure. The strong dollar is the key driver.

Geopolitics

- Korea ocean ministry: HMM's "Namu" vessel expected to transit the Strait of Hormuz in mid-July → Another sign that traffic is normalizing.

💡 Technical Analysis

Source: Investing.com – Prices as of Jul 01, 2026

Gold – $4,000

Gold is trading below $4,000, under pressure from Fed rate hike bets and dollar strength. The metal has fallen for three straight sessions and is hovering near its lowest levels since November 2025. On the 4-hour chart, price stays below the 100-period SMA at $4,161.80, keeping the near-term bias bearish. MACD is negative, and RSI is slipping toward 40, suggesting further downside risk. Resistance is at $4,161.80. Support is at $3,985.60. A break below that level would open the door to more losses.

WTI Crude – $69.50

WTI is trading near $69.50, subdued for a second straight day as US-Iran Doha talks ease supply concerns. The bearish bias remains intact with US output at record highs and Goldman warning of a surplus. Support is near $69.00. Resistance is at $71.00.

🔮 What to Watch This Week

- 🇺🇸 US-Iran Doha talks – any progress?

- 🇺🇸 US jobs data (Friday) – Fed policy implications

- 🛢️ US crude output – further record highs?

- 🇪🇺 Eurozone CPI – ECB rate expectations

- 🥇 Gold – will $4,000 hold?