Daily Forex Highlights – July 9, 2026 – Fed minutes show split views while IMF cuts global growth outlook

📌 What Moves Markets Today

Fed minutes revealed deep divisions with both rate hike and cut possibilities on the table. IMF trimmed 2026 global growth forecast to 3.0%, citing weaker euro area, while markets still price two ECB rate hikes by year-end.

🔴 Bearish for USD → Mixed Fed signals and divisive minutes fail to provide clear direction support.

🟢 Bullish for JPY → Former BOJ official suggests accelerated rate hikes could push policy above 2%.

🟡 Neutral for EUR → IMF downgrade offsets hawkish ECB pricing and US-Spain trade tensions.

🔥 Quick Takes

💵 USD

— Treasury domestic finance deputy undersecretary to resign next week → Leadership change adds policy uncertainty.

— Iraq to halt dollar flows to Iran-backed militias under US pressure → Curbs dollar circulation in the region.

— IMF keeps 2026 US growth at 2.3%, raises 2027 to 2.2% → Stable outlook offers little catalyst for the dollar.

— Fed minutes show broad support for removing easing bias but divisions on next move → Both hike and cut remain on the table.

💶 EUR

— Trump threatens to cut US-Spain trade ties, calls Spain a "lousy ally" → Political friction weighs on euro sentiment.

— IMF cuts 2026 euro area growth to 0.9% from 1.1%, keeps 2027 at 1.2% → Downgrade adds to growth concerns.

— Markets price two 25bp ECB rate hikes by year-end → Hawkish repricing offers some support to the single currency.

💴 JPY

— Former BOJ official Watanabe sees potential for accelerated tightening, rates possibly exceeding 2% → Speculation of aggressive BOJ normalization supports the yen.

🇰🇷 KRW

— Government reviews extending $2.3bn GPU procurement plan beyond 2026 → Potential policy support could stabilize the won.

— BOK vows continued market stabilization measures as won underperforms peers → Intervention rhetoric intensifies.

🌏 Others

— Poland's central bank reiterates readiness for FX intervention → Verbal warning may cap zloty weakness.

— India approves new index derivative contracts for foreign investors → Aims to deepen local markets and attract foreign flows.

— ADB cuts 2026 developing Asia growth to 4.9% from 5.1% → Regional outlook dims on external headwinds.

— Thai deputy finance minister sees diversified FDI inflows, seeks more investment → Positive long-term signal for baht.

💡 Technical Analysis

Source: Investing.com – Prices as of July 9, 2026

📈 DXY – 101.28

DXY traded at 101.28, up 0.18% from the previous session. The index remains above the pivot point at 101.092, with primary support and resistance range spanning 100.583 to 101.573. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East initially boosted the dollar, though Trump's downplaying of full-scale war with Iran contributed to a slight pullback.

Support: 100.58 / 100.00

Resistance: 101.57 / 102.00

📈 EUR/USD – 1.1425

EUR/USD traded at 1.1425, up 0.12%. The pair dipped below 1.1400 earlier in the session before recovering, as Fed minutes failed to provide strong hawkish support for the dollar. The euro found support near 1.1405, with the next resistance level at 1.1445. Technical bias appears consolidative within moving averages.

Support: 1.1405 / 1.1382

Resistance: 1.1445 / 1.1473

📈 USD/JPY – 162.46

USD/JPY traded at 162.46, with the yen rising 0.23%. The pair opened near the 162.40 level, displaying a mixture of consolidation while maintaining a bullish broader structure. The 50-period EMA near 161.35-161.50 provides immediate support, while the multi-decade highs sit above current levels. Market intervention speculation and BOJ tightening expectations create sporadic downward pressure.

Support: 161.50 / 160.50

Resistance: 163.00 / 164.00

🔮 Looking Ahead

— Fed speakers: Any official comments clarifying the divided minutes could move markets.

— ECB policymaker remarks: Signals on the pace of upcoming rate hikes will be closely watched.

— US weekly jobless claims: Thursday's data could influence rate expectations.

— Geopolitical developments: US-Iran tensions, US-Spain trade dispute, and Iraq dollar flow curbs remain in focus.

— BOK intervention: Any actual market action beyond verbal warnings would impact USD/KRW.