Gold Holds Near $4,300 — Can the Next CPI Report Push It Higher?

Gold is holding close to $4,300 after its strongest weekly rally in months. Prices reached a seven-week high following the surprisingly weak US jobs report, but buyers are now facing a new test as the dollar stabilises.

The jobs data changed the Fed story.

US payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, while the previous month's gain was revised sharply lower. Markets have since reduced expectations for a September rate hike to below 50%.

That shift has given gold a fresh tailwind. Lower rate expectations reduce the opportunity cost of holding bullion and can also put pressure on the dollar.

But the rally now needs another catalyst.

US CPI on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday will be closely watched. Softer inflation could further reduce the case for tighter Fed policy, potentially giving gold another push higher.

Geopolitics is adding another layer. Uncertainty around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz continues to support safe-haven demand, although any sustained rise in oil prices could revive inflation concerns and complicate the Fed outlook.

From a trading perspective, $4,300 is the level to watch.

Holding above it would keep the recent bullish structure intact and leave $4,400 as the next major upside area. A clear break below $4,300, however, could signal that traders are taking profits after the sharp rally.

For gold, the next move may come down to one question: will US inflation give the Fed another reason to stay patient?