Major FX Pairs Technical Brief (Asian Monday Session)

Lingering geopolitical risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz sustain consistent safe-haven demand for the US dollar, capping recovery momentum across EUR, GBP and AUD. Divergent monetary policy outlooks remain secondary drivers: persistent US-Japan rate spreads underpin USD/JPY carry trades; the RBA’s hawkish stance cushions AUD downside; UK fiscal uncertainty limits sterling’s rebound potential.

EUR/USD

Macros weigh on the single currency: Middle East risk premiums prop up the greenback, while Eurozone growth prospects lag the US. The pair trades muted below mid-1.1400s after last week’s rejection at ascending channel resistance, carving out a bearish flag pattern on the 4-hour chart. Price action stays suppressed beneath the 200-period EMA, forming rigid overhead supply.

Momentum signals send mixed cues: RSI hovers just under 60 while MACD posts mild positive histograms. A sustained break above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement is mandatory to validate extended recovery from the 1.1325 swing low.

- Resistance: 1.1466 (channel top) → 1.1516 (200-period EMA) → 1.1525 (38.2% Fib)

- Support: 1.1371 (channel lower bound) → 1.1325 (recent swing floor)

GBP/USD

Sterling fails to extend last week’s bounce amid lingering UK fiscal uncertainty following the leadership reshuffle, stuck around 1.3350 in tight consolidation. Daily price holds above the Bollinger mid-band with mild bullish momentum (RSI at 54), yet meaningful upside is blocked by the 100-day SMA.

- Resistance: 1.3410 (100-day SMA; a daily close above unlocks 1.3468 upper Bollinger band)

- Support: 1.3300 (Bollinger mid-band) → 1.3132 (lower band, dip-buying zone)

USD/JPY

Wide US-Japan interest rate gaps keep yen-funded carry trades viable, offsetting market caution over potential stealth Japanese FX intervention. USD/JPY creeps toward 162.00 in Asian hours, though 4-hour charts tilt bearish after price failed to clear the 23.6% Fib retracement of the May-June rally. The 200-period EMA at 160.57 acts as solid near-term support.

RSI prints near 33, signalling weak bearish momentum and range-bound consolidation rather than aggressive downside. Clear breakout above the 23.6% Fib hurdle is needed to ease immediate selling pressure.

- Resistance: 161.80 → 162.00

- Support: 160.57 (200-period EMA) → 159.86 (38.2% Fib)

AUD/USD

The Aussie drifts lower under 0.6950 as safe-haven flows lift the US dollar. Downside losses are capped by the RBA’s persistent hawkish policy stance. Short-term corrective bullish signals emerged after extreme late-June oversold conditions, with 4-hour RSI climbing to low 60s and rising MACD green bars, while the broader daily trend remains structurally bearish.

- Resistance: 0.6950 (38.2% Fib) → 0.6976 / 0.7000 (50%–61.8% Fib zone with historic swing lows)

- Support: 0.6935 (session low) → 0.6885 → key swing floor at 0.6865