Morning Brief: Iran has officially closed the Strait of Hormuz amid escalating geopolitical tensions

Core Snapshot

🛢️ Iran formally closed the Strait of Hormuz and launched strikes against U.S. military facilities across Gulf nations. Trump insisted the strait remains open and operational, creating conflicting market narratives that suppressed crude oil’s geopolitical risk premium.

🏛️ Fed semi-annual report: import tariffs, rising energy costs from Middle East tensions, and large-scale AI infrastructure expansion are pushing inflation higher in the spring of 2025.

📈 Major U.S. equity indexes rose across the board. SK Hynix ADR jumped nearly 13% on its first trading day, reflecting strong institutional demand for AI memory assets.

I. Market Outlook

Core Catalysts

U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions intensified sharply over the weekend. Iran ordered a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz and carried out missile and drone attacks on U.S. military outposts and offshore oil platforms in Kuwait and other Gulf countries, aiming to seize operational control of local maritime shipping. The U.S. launched retaliatory strikes to weaken Iran’s ability to disrupt strait traffic.

Despite escalating geopolitical risks, crude oil prices declined. WTI crude fell 0.93% to $71.41 per barrel, and Brent crude dropped 0.38% to $76.01 per barrel. Markets prioritized easing diplomatic expectations over actual supply risks. For the week, WTI rose 3.96% and Brent gained 5.39%.

Exclusive Insight

The market paradox of “strait closure but falling oil prices” continues. Investors are torn between two logics: Trump’s dovish signals easing geopolitical concerns, and Iran’s substantive supply disruption threatening global energy supplies.

For the first time, the Fed officially classified AI capacity expansion as a source of structural inflation. Surging demand for HBM, DRAM, GPUs and power resources for AI infrastructure has formed sustained inflationary pressure, which has been officially acknowledged by central banks. Fed Chair Walsh’s upcoming congressional hearing will serve as a key catalyst for AI sector valuations.

II. Overnight Market Performance

— US Stocks

S&P 500 +0.42% to 7,575.39, 0.45% below its June record close

Nasdaq +0.29% to 26,281.61

Dow Jones +0.29% to 52,637.01

Weekly: S&P 500 +1.2%, Nasdaq +1.7%, Dow -0.5%

— European Stocks

STOXX 600 +0.04%, weekly -1.8%

European Tech Sector -1.3%, weekly -1.8%

German DAX -0.2%

French CAC 40 +0.15%

FTSE 100 +0.24%

— Fixed Income

US 30Y Yield +1.8 bps to 5.071%

US 2Y Yield +5 bps to 4.212%

— Commodities

WTI Crude -0.93% to $71.41/bbl (weekly +3.96%)

Brent Crude -0.38% to $76.01/bbl (weekly +5.39%)

COMEX Gold -0.64% to $4,104.1/oz (weekly -0.21%)

COMEX Silver -0.94% to $59.809/oz (weekly -1.38%)

— Forex

DXY +0.03% to 100.94

EUR/USD -0.13% to 1.1413

USD/JPY -0.42% to 161.69

— Crypto

Bitcoin +1.4% to $64,121.3

Ethereum +2.93% to $1,796.39

III. Macro Headlines

🛢️ Iran closes Strait of Hormuz; U.S.-Iran military conflicts escalate

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard announced an indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz, accusing external forces of destabilizing regional security. Iran launched coordinated missile and drone attacks on U.S. military sites and offshore oil facilities in Gulf states. The U.S. conducted counterstrikes to limit Iran’s ability to interfere with commercial shipping.

Trump stated the strait remains fully open and accused Iran of violating newly reached negotiation agreements within an hour.

Insight: Conflicting official statements have heightened market uncertainty. Shipping operations depend on corporate risk judgments rather than political statements. Although diplomatic negotiation chances remain, Iran’s expanded strikes have upgraded bilateral tensions into a regional crisis.

🏛️ Fed: Tariffs, energy shocks and AI boom jointly lift inflation

The Federal Reserve’s congressional report confirmed three major inflation drivers: higher import prices from tariffs, rising energy costs from Middle East conflicts, and strong hardware demand driven by large-scale AI construction. These factors pushed inflation higher in spring 2025.

The Fed pledged to take firm policy actions to anchor long-term inflation at the 2% target. Fed Chair Walsh will attend congressional hearings on July 14–15, with markets focusing on his views on rate adjustment space and AI-driven economic overheating risks.

Insight: The Fed has formally recognized AI expansion as a new structural inflation factor. Strong demand for HBM, DRAM, GPUs and power has become an important monetary policy variable. Hawkish signals from Walsh may reshape AI hardware valuation logic.

📊 Foreign capital flees South Korean and Taiwanese stock markets in June

Amid improved expectations for Japan’s economic outlook, emerging market equities recorded a net outflow of $46.1 billion in June. Tech-heavy South Korea and Taiwan saw massive foreign capital withdrawals, leading emerging markets to record consecutive monthly net outflows.

Insight: Asian AI market sentiment has diverged significantly. High valuations in Korean and Taiwanese tech stocks triggered profit-taking, with global capital rotating into undervalued segments of the AI industrial chain.

IV. Global Corporate News

💾 SK Hynix ADR surges nearly 13% on Nasdaq debut; CEO warns of historic memory supply shortage

SK Hynix officially listed on Nasdaq on July 13, raising $26.5 billion in the third-largest U.S. IPO on record. Its stock rose nearly 13% on the first trading day. The CEO warned the global memory chip industry is facing the worst supply shortage in history, with the supply-demand gap peaking in 2027. U.S. investors now have direct access to leading HBM exposure, confirming the market’s shift from AI computing power to AI storage infrastructure.

🤖 Nvidia: Quarterly revenue nears $100 billion, growth accelerates; Rubin Ultra launch on schedule

Nvidia confirmed accelerating AI hardware demand and ruled out product delays, easing market concerns about slowing industry growth. Against the Fed’s new AI-inflation backdrop, Nvidia’s earnings resilience will guide near-term tech sector trends.

🏭 Samsung advances new chip plant launch to 2029

Samsung moved forward the mass production schedule of its Yongin chip factory by 1–2 years to 2029. Together with SK Hynix’s aggressive expansion, Korean memory giants are accelerating capacity layout, reflecting intensified global competition for AI core assets. Advanced production schedules will speed up equipment procurement and industrial capital expenditure.

V. Key Focus Today

· US June Monthly Budget: Deficit data reflects fiscal support strength; a narrower deficit signals fiscal tightening, compounding hawkish monetary pressure.

· Fed Governor Waller Speech: Important preview for next week’s congressional hearing; watch for confirmation of the Fed’s AI-inflation view.

· OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report: Will anchor crude oil trends amid chaotic geopolitical signals via official supply-demand assessments.