Morning Brief: Pakistan’s mediation revives U.S.-Iran negotiation hopes, Nasdaq hits three-month closing low

Core Snapshot

🕊️ Pakistan stepped forward to mediate and restart U.S.-Iran negotiations. President Trump ordered a pause on military airstrikes against Iran to create room for diplomacy, sending Brent crude tumbling more than 5% intraday to fall below the $100 mark.

📉 Weakness across select tech names capped a broader market rebound. The Nasdaq fell for three consecutive sessions to a three-month closing trough, while the Dow Jones posted weekly losses for three straight weeks.

⚖️ Trump slammed the European Commission’s fine against Google as unlawful, announcing the launch of a Section 301 trade probe. He also formally declared his candidacy for a fourth presidential term.

I. Market Outlook

Key Catalysts

Renewed hopes for U.S.-Iran dialogue emerged following Pakistan’s mediation efforts. Trump confirmed a temporary halt to airstrikes on Iranian territory, with Iran’s military reciprocating by suspending its retaliatory attacks for two consecutive nights.

Brent crude shed 3.88% to settle at $96.78 per barrel, having slid over 5% during intraday trading. WTI crude retreated 3.12% to $89.31/bbl. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note dipped roughly 1 basis point intraday to 4.68%.

Tech sector drags persisted despite mixed index performance. The Nasdaq closed 0.64% lower at 24,975.82, marking its weakest close in almost three months. The S&P 500 edged up 0.05% to 7,411.98, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.46% to 51,947.25.

Exclusive Insight

The partial unwind of geopolitical risk premiums served as the immediate catalyst for a sharp pullback in crude prices. Still, the durability of the current diplomatic window remains highly uncertain. Trump did not rule out ramping up military strikes, indicating the pause in aerial bombardment represents a tactical shift rather than a permanent strategic pivot.

The Nasdaq’s three-session slide to a three-month low signals the market’s systemic re-rating of AI hardware valuations is still underway. Even with easing geopolitical tensions for the time being, lingering skepticism over the return profile of massive AI capital expenditures has not abated.

II. Overnight Market Performance

— US Stocks: S&P 500 +0.05% to 7411.98, down 0.61% week-to-date; Dow Jones +0.46% to 51947.25, weekly loss of 0.38%; Nasdaq -0.64% to 24975.82, tumbling 2.13% over the week.

— European Stocks: STOXX 600 +0.82% to 644.51, posting a 0.46% weekly gain.

— Fixed Income: 10-year U.S. Treasury yield settled around 4.68%, down approximately 1bp intraday, yet up 13bps across the week. The 2-year yield stood near 4.33%, down 2bps intraday and 15bps higher week-on-week.

— Commodities: September WTI Crude -3.12% to $89.31/bbl, up 9.21% weekly; Brent Crude -3.88% to $96.78/bbl, weekly advance of 9.85%. COMEX Gold +0.52% to $4067.6/oz, gaining 1.37% over the week.

— Forex: U.S. Dollar Index edged 0.02% higher to 101.47.

— Crypto Assets: Bitcoin dropped more than 1.5% to $64,180; Ethereum fell over 1.2% to $1,859.64.

III. Macro Headlines

🕊️ Pakistan’s mediation revives U.S.-Iran negotiation hopes, Trump halts military airstrikes

Media reports on Friday confirmed Pakistan’s diplomatic outreach to facilitate resumed U.S.-Iran talks. Trump stated Washington was engaged in negotiations with Iran and had not ruled out intensifying military operations, yet on Saturday he ordered a temporary suspension of airstrikes to make space for diplomatic engagement. Iran’s military confirmed on Sunday that U.S. strikes had ceased for two consecutive nights, prompting Iran to pause reciprocal retaliatory attacks.

⚖️ Trump denounces EU’s Google fine, launches Section 301 probe and announces fourth presidential run

Trump published a post on Truth Social labeling the European Commission’s penalty against Google unlawful, and announced the initiation of a Section 301 investigation targeting EU trade practices. On the same day, he formally announced his bid for a fourth term as U.S. President.

📊 U.S. July Composite PMI hits an eight-month high, though Middle East energy risks threaten to cap economic recovery

The flash reading of the U.S. July Composite PMI climbed to an eight-month peak, with both manufacturing and services sectors expanding concurrently. The Eurozone’s flash July Composite PMI also surprised to the upside, hitting a five-month high amid a rebound in German manufacturing and improved activity in French services. That said, elevated energy costs stemming from Middle East tensions are poised to weigh on growth trajectories over the coming months.

🇰🇷 South Korea imposes aggressive new curbs on single-stock leveraged ETFs, rules take effect early on July 31

Regulators raised the minimum cash threshold for participation to 30 million won, representing a steep hike from previous requirements. Local brokerages had previously floated plans to tighten relevant investment regulations.

IV. Global Corporate News

💾 Samsung, SK Hynix ink landmark $950 bln chip supply deals with Nvidia and other tech giants; Nvidia and SK Group roll out over $5 trln AI infrastructure development initiative

The combined value of these multi-year cooperation frameworks marks the largest single collective partnership in global semiconductor industry history, with contract tenures projected to span 5 to 10 years — a reflection of the multi-cycle structural demand for AI hardware. Separately, Anthropic announced in-house development of custom AI chips and has approached SK Hynix for wafer supply, extending the broader vertical integration trend across the AI industrial chain.

🤖 Over 20 major tech firms including Nvidia co-signed an open letter endorsing open-weight AI models; Elon Musk stated the source code for X’s core systems will be open-sourced

The coalition advocating for open-weight models continues to expand, standing in direct contrast to the closed-weight model ecosystem championed by Google, OpenAI and comparable peers. As open-source models gain improved performance and wider adoption, they pose a sustained long-term challenge to the commercial moats built by closed proprietary AI platforms.

🚀 SpaceX’s Starship completes its first fully successful orbital test flight post-listing, with flawless engine reignition and precise ocean splashdown

Elon Musk confirmed the Starship vehicle sustained no critical damage throughout the mission. The stock had faced persistent downward pressure in prior sessions after a previously scheduled test flight was canceled, and this landmark successful launch is poised to provide near-term support to its share price.

📱 Qualcomm warned it cannot fully absorb upstream cost inflation and announced double-digit percentage price hikes across its product lineup

Surging costs for AI chips and advanced manufacturing processes are being passed downstream to end-device manufacturers. Qualcomm’s price adjustment represents another tangible data point confirming the “AI inflation” transmission chain from semiconductor fabrication to consumer hardware.

V. Key Focus Today

· Rambus Earnings Report: As a core supplier of memory interface IP, its quarterly operating results will offer critical insight into underlying memory chip demand trends and shipment volumes for AI servers.