Morning Brief: Trump claims US-Iran negotiations underway while Iran denies contact; US stocks notch three consecutive advances to kick off August

Core Snapshot

🕊️ Trump states the US and Iran are holding talks and calls it Iran’s "last chance" to reach a deal, yet Iran denies any ongoing contact. Crude oil slumps more than 5%.

💴 In a rare move, the US sells euros to buy yen for coordinated intervention. Analysts say the measure avoids sending signals that weaken the US dollar. The yen holds a three-month high.

📊 Renewed hopes for US-Iran dialogue lift US equities for the August opening, with major indexes rising for three consecutive sessions. Amazon’s market capitalisation tops $3 trillion for the first time.

I. Market Outlook

Key Events:

- Mixed signals on US-Iran negotiations: Trump confirms ongoing talks between Washington and Tehran, warning it is Iran’s last opportunity to strike an agreement. Iran rejects claims of current or planned negotiations.

→ WTI crude falls 5.11% to $80.34/bbl; Brent crude drops 4.73% to $83.77/bbl.

- Rare US intervention: selling euros to purchase yen. The Financial Times reports the US Treasury deployed euro sales and yen purchases in coordinated intervention, instead of selling US dollars.

→ USD/JPY rises 0.26% to 157.16, staying at a three-month high. The US Dollar Index weakens, and US main equity indexes extend gains to three straight sessions.

Exclusive Insight:

Conflicting statements between Trump and Iran remain a core trigger for oil volatility, though markets are pricing in chances of negotiation. A single-day drop over 5% in crude reflects ongoing unwinding of geopolitical risk premiums. By opting to sell euros instead of dollars, the US makes clear it aims to support the yen without undermining the dollar index, implying near-term support for the greenback. Amazon hitting a $3 trillion valuation marks market validation of improving revenue prospects from its AI cloud business.

II. Overnight Market Action

— US Stocks: Dow Jones +1.32% at 53178.41; S&P 500 +1.48% at 7600.50; Nasdaq +2.13% at 25913.90. All three benchmarks posted three consecutive advances, notching a positive start to August.

— European Stocks: STOXX Europe 600 +0.5% at 652.09, hovering near record highs. DAX +1.45%, CAC 40 +1.22%, FTSE 100 edged down 0.1%.

— Bond Market: 10-year US Treasury yield falls 6.13 bps to 4.684%. 2-year yield drops 3.51 bps to 4.256%.

— Commodities: September WTI crude -5.11% at $80.34/bbl. Brent crude -4.73% at $83.77/bbl. COMEX Gold -0.38% at $4033.7/oz. Silver +0.13% at $57.667/oz.

— FX Market: USD/JPY +0.26% at 157.16, holding a three-month peak.

— Crypto Assets: Bitcoin hovers around $63,000 after briefly topping $64,000. Ethereum -1.26% at $1858.47.

III. Macro News

1. 🕊️ Trump says US-Iran talks ongoing; Iran denies

Trump confirms bilateral negotiations and warns Iran faces its last chance for an accord. An Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson denies any active or planned dialogue.

Insight: Divergent narratives drive oil swings, with markets already pricing negotiation optimism as crude nears $80. Sustained denial from Iran could erase hopes and trigger an oil rebound.

2. 💴 US conducts rare coordinated intervention by selling euros to buy yen

FT reports the US Treasury chose euro sales for yen purchases rather than dollar sales. Analysts note the policy prevents bearish signals for the US dollar.

Insight: The tactic reveals Washington’s dual goal: stabilise the yen while defending the dollar index, which may cap further yen appreciation.

3. 📊 US July Manufacturing PMI climbs to over four-year high

Strong new orders lift hiring, yet Middle East tensions disrupt supply chains and push input costs higher.

Insight: Manufacturing expansion coexists with supply chain disruptions. Solid PMI data is offset by rising input expenses, keeping inflationary pressure within the industrial sector.

4. 📈 Citi forecasts gold to rebound to $4,500 in Q4, reach $5,000 in H1 2027

Citi Research expects gold may stagnate or dip in the near term before rallying.

Insight: The bullish view rests on central bank buying, geopolitical risks and long-term dollar weakness. Short-term pullbacks are viewed as buying opportunities.

IV. Global Corporate News

1. ☁️ Amazon market capitalisation surpasses $3 trillion for the first time

The stock surged following strong quarterly earnings. AI demand fuels AWS growth, making Amazon the fourth US listed firm after Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia with a valuation above $3 trillion.

2. 🏭 Samsung Foundry capacity utilisation projected to hit 100% this year, turning profit within sight

Demand for AI chips and HBM-related logic chips drives rapid improvement in Samsung’s foundry division.

V. Key Events to Watch

📊 US June JOLTS Job Openings: To gauge whether the labour market continues cooling.

📊 US June Trade Balance: Trade data will shape expectations for exchange rate policies amid US-Japan coordinated FX intervention.

📊 US June Factory Orders & Durable Goods Orders: Verify sustainability of manufacturing momentum.

📊 SpaceX first post-IPO earnings, AMD earnings: SpaceX results will reveal profitability in commercial aerospace and AI computing. AMD’s report will signal shifts in the AI chip competitive landscape.