Morning Brief: Trump to Make Final Decision on Iran; Crude Rebounds in Asian Session After Plunge; S&P 500 Rises for 9 Straight Weeks

Key Snapshot

⚠️ Trump announces final decision on Iran conflict, casting uncertainty on talks; Brent +2.2% and WTI +2.5% in Monday’s Asian session.

📈 S&P 500 rises for 9 straight weeks, hitting longest streak in over two years; +5.15% in May; Dell sparks AI trading frenzy.

🛢️ WTI crude -16.86% in May, Brent -19.26% — biggest monthly drop since 2022.

🇯🇵 Japan intervenes with ¥11.7 trillion in one month — largest operation in recent years.

I. Market Outlook

Core Events

Trump posted that he will make a final decision on Iran military action, triggering volatility. Reports say he significantly revised the MOU with tougher terms to pressure Iran into faster talks. Iran’s parliament speaker said no deal will be approved until people’s rights are guaranteed; the foreign minister called all speculation premature. The US Defense Secretary noted Trump is “very patient” and “any deal is worth it.” Weekend talks hit snags; in Monday’s Asian session, Brent rebounded 2.2% and WTI rose 2.5%.

Market Reaction

Friday’s Dell earnings ignited an AI rally, driving US indexes to new highs; S&P 500 notched a 9-week winning streak, longest in over two years. After Trump’s post, the 10Y Treasury yield and USD index hit two-week lows. WTI fell 16.86% and Brent 19.26% in May, the worst monthly slump since 2022. Crude rebounded in Monday’s Asian session: Brent +2.2%, WTI +2.5%.

Exclusive Insight

Trump’s “final decision” is a negotiating tactic — last-minute pressure to force Iran to accept revised terms. Friday’s market moves (Treasuries up, USD down) show investors pricing a near-term deal. Weekend headlines triggered a modest oil bounce, but the broader trend remains toward a deal. Japan’s ¥11.7T intervention — far larger than expected — had limited impact; USD/JPY still holds above 159. LME aluminum nears a 4-year high as Gulf output plunges 35% due to Hormuz blockades; aluminum may be the next commodity to surge on supply disruptions.

II. Overnight Market Action

Summary

Dell fuels AI frenzy, US stocks hit new highs, S&P 9-week win streak; Trump’s post lifts Treasuries, weighs on USD.

US Equities

• S&P 500: +0.22% to 7,580.06; +1.43% weekly, +5.15% MoM
• Dow Jones: +0.72% to 51,032.46; +0.90% weekly, +2.78% MoM
• Nasdaq: +0.21% to 26,972.62; +1.22% weekly, +8.36% MoM

💡 S&P extends 9-week rally, longest since late 2023. Dell’s 757% AI revenue surge sparks AI mania, lifting all three indexes. Nasdaq leads May gains (+8.36%), tech-driven momentum intact.

European Equities

• STOXX 600: +0.14% to 626.00; +0.14% weekly, +2.41% MoM

💡 Limited gains; weak EU data and ECB hike expectations cap upside.

Fixed Income

• US 10Y yield: ~4.44%, -12 bps weekly, +7 bps MoM
• US 2Y yield: ~4.00%, -12 bps weekly, +13 bps MoM

💡 10Y yield hits two-week low post-Trump’s post. Long-end rates rose in May on inflation and hike fears.

Commodities

• WTI July crude: -1.73% to $87.36/bbl; -9.57% weekly, -16.86% MoM
• Brent July crude: -1.77% to $92.05/bbl; -11.1% weekly, -19.26% MoM
• COMEX June gold: +1.17% to $4,560.5/oz; +0.82% weekly, -1.17% MoM

💡 May’s oil plunge is the worst since 2022 as markets price a deal. Gold edged down in May, pressured by fading geopolitical premiums and higher real rates.

Currencies

• USD index: -0.12% to 98.902

💡 USD breaks below 99, hitting two-week low post-Trump’s post. Japan’s intervention fails to reverse yen weakness; USD/JPY holds near 159.

Crypto

• Bitcoin: back above $73k at $73,471.2
• Ethereum: +0.4% to $2,014.19

💡 Bitcoin bounces from $73,590, stuck in a $73k–$78k range.

III. Macro News

🕊️ Trump to make final Iran decision; talks hit weekend snag

Reports say Trump toughened MOU terms to accelerate talks. Iran’s speaker rejects a deal until rights are secured. Asian session: Brent +2.2%, WTI +2.5%.

Insight: Trump’s “final decision” is an ultimatum. Weekend headlines are posturing, not collapse. Oil bounced modestly; investors still price an eventual deal. Iran’s response to revised terms is key.

🇯🇵 Japan intervenes with ¥11.7T ($75B) in one month — largest in years

Insight: The ¥11.7T move dwarfed expectations of ¥5T. Yet impact was limited — USD/JPY remains above 159. Japan’s unilateral intervention can’t reverse yen weakness driven by US-Japan rate differentials.

📈 Gulf aluminum output plunges 35%; LME price nears 4-year high

Hormuz blockades cut alumina supply. JPMorgan sees largest annual deficit since 2000, targeting $4,000/ton.

Insight: Aluminum is the next supply-constrained commodity. Oil has priced a deal, but aluminum shortages are real and unfolding. A $4,000 target implies ~10% upside.

IV. Corporate News

🚀 SpaceX, OpenAI IPOs near; Asian investors “sell chips, buy bottlenecks”

IPOs to drive $700B in AI spending, plus $750B+ in cloud capex. Analysts warn of infrastructure oversupply if AI demand disappoints.

— “Sell chips, buy bottlenecks” evolves AI investing: from overvalued GPUs to components, server assembly, power infrastructure. Oversupply risks loom if AI adoption slows.

📉 SpaceX valuation cut from $2T to $1.8T; Musk calls report “false”

— Valuation swings reflect market division. The $200B gap hinges on the option value of Mars colonization.

💻 AI coding pricing shifts: GitHub Copilot switches to token-based billing June 1

— Heavy users face steep cost hikes. This marks a shift from user acquisition to monetization. Watch Cursor, Claude Code for follow moves.

V. Today’s Key Focus

🗣️ Nvidia GTC Taipei 2026: Jensen Huang keynote — Blackwell shipment timeline, next-gen GPU roadmap, AI infrastructure demand.

📊 South Korea May exports: global trade gauge, check semiconductor strength.

📉 US May ISM Manufacturing: gauge factory resilience amid high rates, watch recession signals.