Morning Brief: US launches fresh airstrikes against Iran; oil surges over 5%. Global sovereign‑bond yields hit highs unseen since 2008

【Key Snapshot】

· ⚠️ The US carried out a new round of airstrikes targeting Iran. Escalating US‑Iran frictions stoke fears over oil supply, sending WTI crude jumping 5.20% back above $90.

· 🏛️ Rate‑hike expectations heat up further. Global sovereign‑bond yield benchmarks hit their highest levels since 2008, while the 10‑year US Treasury yield marks a fresh near‑20‑month peak.

· 📉 Major US equity benchmarks closed broadly lower. Dow Jones fell 0.79%, S&P 500 dropped 0.71% and Nasdaq Composite lost 1.03%, erasing earlier weekly gains.

【Market Outlook】

Core Events

‑ Fresh US airstrikes on Iran send crude sharply higher: The US launched a new round of airstrikes against Iranian targets, reigniting global worries over energy supply. The recent recovery of shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz to 75% of pre‑conflict levels faces reversal risks. → WTI crude +5.20% at $90.22/bbl; Brent crude +4.60% at $94.65/bbl.

Exclusive View

For the September rate‑hike calculus, oil prices back above $90 create a new imported‑inflation shock to the disinflation trajectory. The 10‑year Treasury yield edging toward 4.80% is tightening financial conditions across the board.

【Overnight Market Performance】

‑ US Equities: Dow Jones ‑0.79% at 52766.93; S&P 500 ‑0.71% at 7631.47; Nasdaq Composite ‑1.03% at 26099.77.

‑ European Equities: STOXX Europe 600 ‑0.6% at 647.08, hitting a more‑than‑one‑month low. DAX ‑1.1%, CAC 40 ‑0.4%, FTSE 100 ‑0.3%.

‑ Fixed Income: 10‑Year US Treasury yield rose 3.4 bps to 4.792%, a near‑20‑month high; 2‑Year yield +3.9 bps to 4.389%. The 2‑year/10‑year spread stands at +40.1 bps.

‑ Commodities: WTI Oct crude +5.20% at $90.22/bbl; Brent crude +4.60% at $94.65/bbl. COMEX Gold ‑1.88% at $4348/oz; Silver ‑2.42% at $64.618/oz.

‑ FX: US Dollar Index +0.27% at 99.68; EURUSD ‑0.21% at 1.1592; GBPUSD ‑0.24% at 1.3515; USDJPY +0.3% at 160.17.

‑ Crypto: Bitcoin ‑1.87%; Ethereum ‑2.48% at $2406.

【Macro Highlights】

1. ⚠️ US conducts new airstrikes on Iran, oil surges more than 5%. Renewed US‑Iran military escalation pushes up global energy prices. The Strait of Hormuz shipping recovery to 75% of pre‑war levels faces setbacks.

Insight: Geopolitical risk premia are rushing back into markets. Prior optimism over unimpeded Hormuz shipping rested on fragile diplomatic foundations. Fresh airstrikes show underlying conflict drivers remain unresolved.

2. 🏛️ Global sovereign‑bond yields hit highs since 2008, US 10‑year yield nears 4.80%. Mounting rate‑hike expectations push global sovereign‑bond yield gauges to 2008 peaks. The 10‑year US Treasury touched an intraday high of 4.802%, the strongest reading in nearly 20 months. Eurozone August CPI surged to a three‑year high, making next‑week ECB hike all but certain.

Insight: Synchronized global rate‑hike bets are tightening financial conditions systematically. Sovereign‑bond yields breaking post‑subprime‑crisis levels mark a milestone: the 15‑year era of ultra‑low rates keeps drawing to a close.

3. 📉 US August ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 54.6 from 55.6. New‑order momentum cooled. Some manufacturers warn price pressures stemming from Middle‑East tensions and tariffs could weigh on sales. Eurozone August CPI hit a three‑year high, virtually locking in an ECB rate hike next week.

【Corporate News】

1. 💾 Dell posts record Q2 revenue and sharply lifts full‑year guidance, stock briefly rallied over 10% after hours. Booming demand for Dell AI servers validates accelerating enterprise‑IT spending on AI hardware infrastructure.

2. 💰 Anthropic unveils Fable 5.1 with a 75% price cut for cache‑hit workloads. Enhanced coding and research capabilities signal intensifying price competition across AI application layers.

3. 📱 Apple CEO Ternus releases first company‑wide memo, calling next‑week’s iPhone launch “extraordinary”. The Ternus‑era debut hardware event will put the first foldable iPhone and new‑leadership innovation credentials to the test.

【Today’s Key Watchlist】

· 📊 US August ADP employment change. Key pre‑nonfarm‑payrolls preview, consensus 100k‑120k new jobs. Weak prints may temporarily dial back rate‑hike bets; strong prints will boost September‑hike odds.

· 🇰🇷 South Korea August CPI.

· 🇯🇵 BOJ board member Sogo Takata speech.

· 🇳🇿 RBNZ interest‑rate decision.

· 🇨🇦 BoC rate decision followed by Governor Macklem press conference.