NFP, Central Banks and US Midterms: 5 Events to Watch This Week

Markets are heading into a busy week, with US midterm elections, major central bank decisions and key corporate earnings all on the calendar.

After a difficult October for technology stocks, investors are also questioning whether heavy AI spending can continue to support valuations. Friday’s US jobs report could add another layer of volatility, especially as markets continue to price in a possible Fed rate hike in December.

Here are five developments worth watching.

1. US Midterm Elections – November 3

The US midterm elections could influence the direction of fiscal policy, trade measures and technology regulation.

A shift in control of Congress could make it harder for the Trump administration to push through its economic agenda. Technology stocks may be particularly sensitive to any signs of tighter restrictions on AI infrastructure and data centres.

Market focus: US indices, technology stocks and the US dollar.

2. RBA and BoE Rate Decisions – November 3 and 5

The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its policy decision on Tuesday, followed by the Bank of England on Thursday.

Markets are expecting both central banks to raise rates, with the RBA widely expected to move from 4.60% to 4.85%, and the BoE potentially lifting its rate from 3.75% to 4.00%.

The decisions matter, but the guidance will matter just as much. Any indication that further tightening may be needed could support the Australian dollar and British pound.

Market focus: AUD/USD, GBP/USD and bond yields.

3. Apple and AMD Earnings – November 2 and 3

Big Tech earnings are back in focus after Intel shares plunged nearly 29% last Friday, adding to concerns over the cost and returns of AI investment.

Apple’s results will be watched for revenue growth and iPhone demand, while AMD’s outlook could offer fresh clues about demand for AI chips.

Stronger-than-expected results may help restore confidence in technology stocks. But disappointing guidance could deepen the recent selloff.

Market focus: Nasdaq 100 and US technology stocks.

4. US Nonfarm Payrolls – November 6

Friday’s October jobs report is arguably the week’s biggest economic release.

The US added just 29,000 jobs in September, while economists expect around 65,000 new jobs in October. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%.

A stronger reading could reinforce expectations of another Fed rate hike in December, potentially supporting the US dollar while putting pressure on gold.

A weaker report may ease rate concerns, although a sharp deterioration in employment could also raise worries about economic growth.

Market focus: US dollar, gold, Treasury yields and US indices.

5. Oil and Geopolitical Developments

Oil prices have started November under pressure, with Brent falling more than 3% on Monday as diplomatic efforts involving Iran and Qatar raised hopes of easing regional tensions.

However, October’s strong rally and continued security risks around Gulf shipping mean the supply outlook remains uncertain.

Any progress in negotiations could weigh on oil prices further, while renewed disruptions may quickly bring the geopolitical premium back.

Market focus: Brent and WTI crude.

What Traders Should Keep in Mind

This is a week where several markets could move at the same time, but not necessarily in the same direction.

Keep an eye on the US dollar and Treasury yields ahead of Friday’s jobs report, watch AUD and GBP around their central bank decisions, and follow Nasdaq closely as major technology companies report earnings.

With political headlines and geopolitical risks adding to the mix, sharp price swings are possible. Watch how prices react around key levels rather than relying on the headlines alone.