Oil Steadies After Two-Day Slide — EIA Data and Hormuz Talks Are Today's Key Risks

Brent crude rose 0.33% to $79.62 a barrel and WTI added 0.16% to $75.90 early Wednesday, stabilizing after Brent closed Tuesday below $80 for the first time since July 13 — down more than 5% on the day.

The trigger: Qatar said Tuesday that mediators were making progress toward ending the US-Iran war, even as Tehran denied President Trump's claim that direct talks were underway. IG analysts noted the core sticking point remains whether Iran retains partial control over Strait of Hormuz shipping — a route that carried roughly 20% of global oil and LNG flows before the conflict began.

Scale of the move: EIA data shows Brent averaged $85/barrel in June, already down $22 from May and $32 from April's peak — and the agency's Short-Term Energy Outlook projects a further slide to a $74/barrel average for Q3 2026 as global inventories swing from steep drawdowns toward rebuilding.

Today's catalysts for traders:

1. API read: Crude stocks rose ~2.7 million barrels for the week ended July 31; gasoline also built while distillates fell — a mixed signal ahead of official confirmation
2. EIA release: Government inventory data lands at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday — the next hard data point likely to move prices intraday
3. Diplomatic track: Trump and Qatar's Emir discussed narrowing US-Iran differences by phone Tuesday; any Hormuz reopening signal remains the single biggest swing factor for both benchmarks this week