Silver Rebounds Above $62 After Soft US Jobs Data, While Broader Bearish Structure Remains

Silver (XAG/USD) climbed to a weekly high near $62.15 during Friday's early European session, extending a two-day rebound after weaker-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls data reduced market expectations for further Federal Reserve policy tightening.

The US economy added 57,000 jobs in June, well below the market forecast of around 110,000, according to Trading Economics. Following the release, market pricing reduced the implied probability of a September Federal Reserve rate hike to around 50%, down from approximately 66% beforehand, based on the CME FedWatch Tool.

Geopolitical Developments Remain in Focus

Market participants continue to monitor the fragile de-escalation between the United States and Iran.

Iran's joint military command said on Thursday that any US intervention in the Strait of Hormuz would trigger a "decisive and swift response." Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said Tehran had "accepted nearly everything" Washington requires.

Any renewed escalation could revive inflation concerns and may limit further gains in silver, given the metal's dual role as both an industrial commodity and a traditional safe-haven asset.

Technical Picture: Recovery Does Not Yet Confirm a Trend Reversal

Despite the recent rebound, silver's daily chart continues to reflect a broadly bearish technical structure.

Prices remain below the middle Bollinger Band and the 100-day moving average, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands near 42, below the neutral 50 level.

These indicators are generally interpreted as suggesting that the recent advance is more consistent with a corrective rebound within a broader downtrend than with a confirmed trend reversal.

Key Levels to Watch

Resistance

1. $63.50 — Middle Bollinger Band
2. $70.00 — Psychological level
3. $71.80 — Upper Bollinger Band
4. $75.00 — 100-day Moving Average

Support

1. $60.00 — Psychological level
2. $55.25 — Lower Bollinger Band

A sustained move below $55.25 could weaken the current technical outlook further and bring the possibility of a deeper decline into focus.

Why It Matters for Southeast Asian Traders

Silver prices are closely influenced by changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations and movements in the US dollar, both of which can affect currency and commodity markets across ASEAN economies.

Although silver has fallen by more than 15% over the past month, it remains up nearly 70% compared with the same period last year, according to Trading Economics.

Given these conditions, market volatility could remain elevated in the near term. Traders may monitor the $60.00–$63.50 range as an important technical reference area, while also watching upcoming comments from Federal Reserve officials and developments in the Strait of Hormuz for potential market catalysts.

Technical analysis referenced from FXStreet chart data. Macroeconomic and pricing data were sourced from Trading Economics and the CME FedWatch Tool. This content is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.