Daily Commodities Highlights – Jul 03 – Saudi exports near pre-war levels; WTI holds above $69; gold climbs to $4,200

📌 What Moves Markets Today

Saudi crude exports are back near pre-war levels, shipping 6.3 million b/d in the six days through Wednesday. Kuwaiti output rebounded sharply from 578,000 b/d in May to 1.65 million b/d in June, hitting 1.9 million b/d in the final 10 days.

Citi warns oil could fall to $60 as the Strait crisis fades. Gold climbed to $4,200, its highest in a week and a half, as softer jobs data reduced Fed hike expectations.

🔴 Bearish for oil as supply floods back.

🟢 Bullish for gold as rate hike fears fade.

🔥 Quick Takes

Energy

- Germany to launch a plan by end-2026 to accelerate power grid expansion → A long-term infrastructure push. Not an immediate market driver.

- Saudi Aramco has raised export volumes from Ras Tanura and shifted to spot sales → More supply hitting the market.

- IEA: Nigeria has officially joined the International Energy Agency → A symbolic move. No immediate supply impact.

- Saudi exports near pre-war levels: 6.3 million b/d in the six days through Wednesday → Supply normalizing fast, a bearish signal for oil.

- India and Japan agree to cooperate on crude and product strategic reserves → A long-term partnership. Not an immediate price driver.

- Sources: Kuwait's June output averaged 1.65 million b/d, up from 578,000 b/d in May. Hit 1.9 million b/d in the final 10 days → A massive supply rebound from Kuwait.

- Sources: Russia's June western port exports hit a record 3 million b/d → Russian crude flowing freely. More supply pressure.

- Citi: Oil could fall to $60 as the Strait crisis fades → A stark warning of significant downside.

- UBS: Cut Q3 and Q4 Brent forecasts to $80/bbl. Cut 2027 forecast to $75/bbl → A bearish revision from UBS.

Metals & Mining

- Turkey central bank launched a one-week "gold-for-lira" sell-side swap auction, size: 6 tons of gold → A liquidity operation. Not a market driver.

- Citi: Current aluminum prices don't offer an attractive shorting opportunity. Expects prices to bottom and rebound to $3,300-$3,500/t between September and December → A bullish medium-term view on aluminum.

Agriculture

- India trade minister: Government is aware of potential difficulties ahead from El Niño. Rice and wheat stocks are sufficient to last through next year → Food supplies secure. No immediate shortage.

Geopolitics

- At least 5 VLCCs loaded 10 million barrels of Saudi crude from Ras Tanura and have exited the Strait → Supply is flowing. A bearish signal.

- European powers now believe Strait transit fees are "inevitable" → A new risk factor. Could add costs to Gulf oil.

- US warns Iran: Changing the Strait's status quo will be seen as a violation of the deal → A red line. The US is watching closely.

💡 Technical Analysis

Source: Investing.com – Prices as of Jul 03, 2026

Gold(XAUUSD) – $4,200

Gold climbed to $4,200, its highest in a week and a half, extending its recovery from November 2025 lows. The price broke above the 100-period SMA ($4,143) and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, reinforcing the near-term positive tone. RSI near 68 is approaching overbought. MACD remains positive and rising, suggesting strong but potentially overstretched momentum.

Resistance is at $4,301 (38.2% Fibo), $4,412 (50% Fibo), and $4,522 (61.8% Fibo). Support is at $4,165 (23.6% Fibo) and $4,143 (100-period SMA). A deeper pullback could expose $3,944.

WTI Crude – $69.10

WTI held above $69.00, supported by a weaker dollar and cooling Fed hike expectations after softer jobs data. But supply pressures remain intense: Saudi exports near pre-war levels, Kuwaiti output surging, Russian exports at record highs. Citi's $60 call is a reminder that downside risk is real. Support is near $68.00. Resistance is at $70.00.

🔮 What to Watch This Week

- 🛢️ Saudi exports – will they exceed pre-war levels?

- 🇺🇸 US jobs data – more cooling signals?

- 🇮🇷 Iran Strait fees – will they materialize?

- 🥇 Gold – will it break above $4,300?

- 🇨🇳 China demand data – any signs of recovery?