Silver Retreats to $63.80 After Brief Recovery, Six-Month Low Back in Focus

Silver edged lower to $63.80 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Thursday, giving back gains from an earlier recovery attempt near $67.00. The pullback comes as a one-two macro punch — blowout US payrolls and the hottest CPI print since April 2023 — has reset rate expectations sharply higher, putting renewed pressure on the yieldless metal.

The immediate risk is a retest of the March 23 six-month low at $61.01. A break there would confirm the falling wedge pattern's lower boundary near $61.80 has failed, opening downside toward the $58 region.

What's Driving the Move

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported May nonfarm payrolls at 172,000 on June 5 — more than double the 85,000 consensus — sending CME FedWatch markets to price a 72% probability of a December rate hike, up from 45% the prior week. That was followed on June 10 by May CPI at 4.2% year-over-year, the highest reading since April 2023, with the energy subindex up 3.9% reflecting Iran-related oil price pressure.

For silver, the transmission is direct. Higher rate expectations strengthen the dollar and raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. The metal has declined roughly 16% from its early-June high of $76 as macro headwinds overwhelmed the structural supply story.

The Fundamental Picture Is More Complicated Than the Price Suggests

Beneath the selloff, silver's supply-demand backdrop remains structurally tight. According to the Silver Institute's World Silver Survey 2026, the market is heading for its sixth consecutive annual supply deficit of 46.3 million ounces, widening from 40.3 million ounces in 2025. Mine supply is forecast to dip 0.3% to 844.1 million ounces — a constraint that cannot be resolved quickly.

Industrial demand, however, is sending mixed signals. Silver use in photovoltaics is forecast to fall 19% in 2026 to around 151 million ounces as solar manufacturers cut silver content per panel to manage costs, per the World Silver Survey. Offsetting this, demand from AI data centers, automotive electronics, and 5G infrastructure continues to grow.

The Gold/Silver ratio currently sits at 63.9 — the highest level of 2026 and up sharply from 55.1 in May — indicating silver has cheapened significantly relative to gold. Historically, readings in this range have preceded silver outperformance during precious metals recoveries.

Key Levels to Watch

On the downside, the $61.80–$61.01 zone is the critical support band. A daily close below $61.01 removes the technical floor established in March and points toward the $58 region.

On the upside, the first meaningful hurdle is the 9-day EMA at $68.88, followed by the falling wedge upper boundary near $70.10. A confirmed break above $70.10 would shift the near-term bias and open the door toward the 50-day EMA at $74.68 — a level aligned with JPMorgan's full-year 2026 average silver price forecast of approximately $81/oz.

The June 17 FOMC meeting is the single most consequential near-term event. Fed Chair Warsh's dot plot and forward guidance on the rate path will determine whether the current macro headwind intensifies or begins to ease.

Data Sources: Silver Institute World Silver Survey 2026 (silverinstitute.org); US Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls.gov); CME FedWatch Tool (cmegroup.com); Gold/Silver ratio: goldsilver.com, June 10, 2026

Risk Disclosure: Precious metals trading involves substantial risk and may result in the loss of all invested capital. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.