The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield dipped roughly 4 bps to 4.46% on Thursday, erasing nearly all the prior session’s 6-bp gain. The 30-year yield settled near 4.97%.

A pullback in crude oil fueled mild bond buying. Progress toward an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire lifted optimism over broader US-Iran diplomatic talks and pressured Brent crude lower. Even so, market sentiment remains fragile, with oil prices still well above pre-conflict levels.

Labor metrics have strengthened over the past two months. ADP reported private-sector payrolls rose by 122,000 in May, topping consensus estimates. All investor focus shifts to Friday’s official nonfarm release. A Bloomberg survey pegs May headline job gains at 185,000, with the unemployment rate steady at 3.9%. Rate swaps price an around 85% chance of a 25-bp Fed rate hike by December.

“If inflation stays sticky and job growth remains solid, markets will price in more aggressive Fed tightening; a single rate increase will not suffice,” said Gregory Faranello, Head of US Rates Trading & Strategy at AmeriVet Securities.

James Okafor, rates strategist at Edgen, added: “Markets are pricing an economy that refuses to cool enough to warrant Fed cuts. Every strong data print reinforces the higher-for-longer narrative and lifts yields.”

Technical Outlook: 4.426% Marks Critical Support

The 10-year yield posted a false breakout last week after briefly piercing a long-term trendline linking the October 2023 and January 2025 highs before failing to hold above the level, an early warning of a potential trend reversal.

4.426% stands as immediate key support. A sustained breakdown opens a retreat toward the 3.90%–4.60% band; a drop through 3.85%–3.90% would unlock deeper losses toward 3.60%. On the upside, a bounce above 4.687%–4.80% reinstates the prevailing uptrend.

Daily technical indicators signal fading near-term momentum: RSI sits neutral around 50 while MACD flattens below zero. The 20-day moving average triggered a sell signal, yet longer-dated 50/100/200 DMAs remain bullish, pointing to near-term corrective pressure without damage to the medium-term uptrend structure.

Friday’s payroll print will decide whether yields consolidate below 4.5%. A hot reading could send yields retesting 4.687%–4.80%, while soft employment figures may spark a pullback toward the 3.90%–4.60% range。