📰 US September PPI Jumps 6.3% YoY, Highest In Over Four Years; South Korean Stocks Plunge For Seven Straight Days, Trigger Circuit Breakers

Key Snapshot

· 📊 US September PPI rose 6.3% YoY, the highest reading in more than four years, with a 1.3% month-on-month gain, the steepest jump since March 2022. Energy PPI surged 10.8% in a single month, as inflation pressures spread from energy into broader sectors.

· 📈 US Treasury yields fell sharply. The 10-year yield dropped 10.1 basis points to 5.089%. Gold rallied 2.06% and moved back above $4190.

I. Market Outlook

Core Events

- US September PPI Hits 6.3% YoY, Four-Year High: The 1.3% MoM increase marks the largest rise since March 2022. Energy PPI spiked 10.8% for the month. Broad-based cost increases for goods and services show inflationary pressures are broadening out from energy products. → S&P 500 +0.33% at 7744.06; Dow Jones +1.08% at 52177.69; Nasdaq +0.08% at 26713.03.

- South Korean Stocks Fall Seven Days In A Row, Circuit Breakers Activated: Both KOSPI and KOSDAQ triggered circuit breakers after seven consecutive sessions of losses. South Korea’s Financial Commission held an emergency meeting, noting excessive declines and vowing to roll out contingency plans if needed. → Sentiment across Asia-Pacific markets weakened. Bitcoin briefly dipped below $80,000 for the first time in nearly a month.

Exclusive View

The 6.3% YoY PPI print is more alarming than CPI, as PPI feeds into CPI with a typical lag of two to three months. Even so, US bond yields retreated sharply, with the 10-year rate down 10.1 bps to 5.089%. This suggests markets believe aggressive rate hikes will accelerate economic downturn and cap long-run inflation. The seven-day meltdown and circuit-breaker triggers in South Korea reflect extreme pressure on Asian tech stocks from AI valuation repricing and foreign capital outflows.

II. Overnight Market Performance

—— US Equities: S&P 500 +0.33% at 7744.06; Nasdaq +0.08% at 26713.03; Dow Jones +1.08% at 52177.69.

—— European Equities: STOXX 600 +0.38% to 640.16.

—— Fixed Income: 10-year US Treasury yield -10.1 bps to 5.089%. 30-year yield -9.8 bps to 5.426%, both hitting the lowest levels since September 23.

—— Commodities: WTI November contract +3.03% to $97.97/bbl; Brent -0.13% to $105.92/bbl. COMEX Gold +2.06% to $4192.5/oz; Silver +3.09% to $57.605/oz.

—— FX: US Dollar Index -0.45% to 101.99. Euro rebounded 0.56% from an 18-month low to 1.1218 USD, its biggest one-day gain in nearly two months.

—— Crypto: Bitcoin briefly broke below $80,000 for the first time in almost a month.

III. Macro News

1. 📊 US September PPI Surges 6.3% YoY, Four-Year Peak: MoM gain of 1.3% is the strongest since March 2022, while energy PPI jumped 10.8% monthly. Broadly rising goods and service costs signal inflation pressures are spreading beyond energy.

Insight: PPI acts as a leading indicator for CPI. A 6.3% YoY reading means CPI will remain at risk of upward moves in the next 2-3 months. Inflation broadening from energy into services represents the Fed’s worst-case scenario.

2. ⚠️ Ukraine Resumes Attacks On Russian Refineries, Zelensky Says Energy Ceasefire No Longer In Force: The Russia-Ukraine energy truce collapses, reviving global energy supply risks.

3. 📉 KOSPI And KOSDAQ Trigger Circuit Breakers After Seven-Day Slide: The Financial Commission convened urgently, calling the selloff excessive and ready to activate emergency measures. Asian tech stocks face dual headwinds from AI valuation reset and foreign capital outflows.

4. 🛢️ IEA Pledges To Release More Than 20 Million Barrels Of Diesel Soon, Yet Failure To Expand total volumes disappointed market participants.

IV. Global Corporate News

1. 💾 TSMC Q3 Net Profit Rises 69%, New Record For Six Straight Quarters; Q4 Revenue Guidance Beats Estimates By 6%: The projected revenue range of $52.3B–$54.3B tops market consensus by roughly 6%, underpinned by robust demand for AI chips.

2. 🤖 Anthropic Posts $16.8B Q3 Revenue, But Monthly Growth Slumps To Single Digits: Investors cut its IPO valuation estimate from around $2 trillion to $1.5 trillion. Slowing growth in AI application-layer firms is weighing on valuation expectations.

V. Key Watchlist For Today

· 🗣️ Fed Chair Walsh will deliver a fireside chat at the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok. This will be his final public remarks before the blackout period ahead of the October policy meeting, setting the tone for the October 27–28 gathering.

· 🔇 The Fed enters its media blackout period starting October 17 ahead of the October rate decision.