I. Macro Backdrop

The week of May 29 was defined by two key themes: U.S.-Iran tensions and mixed U.S. inflation signals.

· U.S.-Iran Negotiations: The U.S. has demanded Iran surrender its high-enriched uranium and ensure unimpeded navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran rejected these terms, stating it will not transfer uranium out of the country and has established permanent control over shipping in the strait. The standoff has kept safe-haven flows elevated, particularly in crude oil.

· Fed Policy & Inflation: The April core PCE index rose 3.3% YoY, its highest since November 2023, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will keep rates on hold for longer. Meanwhile, the trimmed-mean PCE favored by Fed Chair Walsh rose 2.3% YoY, down from 2.4% in March, supporting the view that underlying inflation is cooling. This divergence kept markets in a cautious holding pattern.

II. Asset Technical Breakdown

1. S&P 500

The index maintains a robust bullish trend.

· Oscillators: RSI(14) at 57 remains in bullish territory, with MACD also positive. Only StochRSI shows a sell signal, suggesting minor near-term exhaustion.

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Resistance: 7,581.91, 7,591.81, 7,598.38

Support: 7,565.44, 7,558.87, 7,548.97

The long-term uptrend is unchallenged. The pivot point at 7,575.34 acts as solid support, and a break above 7,581.91 will push price toward the 7,600 mark.

2. Dow Jones

The Dow exhibits a textbook bullish setup.

· Oscillators: RSI(14) at 62 is strong, though Stochastic is overbought, hinting at a possible pause in the rally.

Resistance: 51,019.70, 51,082.82, 51,131.05

Support: 50,908.35, 50,860.12, 50,797.00

The trend is decisively bullish. The pivot at 51,000 is the key level to watch; a hold here keeps the path open to new highs above 51,100.

3. Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold is facing pressure from a firmer U.S. dollar, with a mixed indicator picture leaning bearish.

· Oscillators: Stochastic RSI is oversold, but RSI(14) is neutral at 40. MACD offers the only clear buy signal.

Resistance: 4,567.10, 4,577.80, 4,584.00

Support: 4,550.20, 4,544.00, 4,533.30

The bias is neutral-to-bearish. A decisive break below the pivot at 4,510 would confirm further downside toward 4,500. Conversely, reclaiming 4,550 is needed to reignite bullish momentum.

 4、WTI Crude Oil

Oil is supported by both geopolitical risk premiums and bullish technical momentum.

· Oscillators: All momentum indicators (RSI, MACD, Stochastic) are flashing bullish signals, with no sell indicators present.

Resistance: 90.27, 90.65, 91.20

Support: 89.34, 88.79, 88.41

The geopolitical backdrop provides a strong floor for prices. The pivot at 89.72 is the immediate support. A break above 90.27 would target higher levels.

5. EUR/USD

The pair is firmly in a bearish structure.

· Oscillators: Stochastic RSI is oversold, while MACD shows a mild bullish crossover—indicating potential for a short-term bounce before the downtrend resumes.

Resistance: 1.1648, 1.1652, 1.1655

Support: 1.1641, 1.1638, 1.1634

The bearish bias remains intact. Any bounce is likely to be corrective, with sellers expected to re-emerge near the pivot point of 1.1645.

Pic source： tradingview

This analysis is for market research reference only and does not constitute investment advice. All prices and indicators are based on data from Investing.com.