COMEX Copper Jumps Over 2% Early June Amid Late-Month U.S. Refined Copper Tariff Uncertainty

Copper on COMEX and LME notched sharp rallies in early June, with bullish sentiment lingering into the month trading day as traders brace for a critical U.S. refined copper tariff verdict due June 30.

At the close of the first session, COMEX copper futures jumped more than 2% to $6.58 per pound, while LME three-month copper climbed nearly 2% above $13,800 per tonne. Prices retained firm underpinnings in subsequent sessions, with LME copper briefly piercing the $14,000 threshold on Tuesday before mild profit-taking triggered a modest pullback on Wednesday.

The core price driver remains a hard statutory timeline: the U.S. Commerce Department is obligated to submit a full copper-industry review plus refined copper tariff recommendations to President Trump by June 30, 2026The White House.

In July 2025, COMEX copper crashed 20% in a single session, after Washington unveiled a milder-than-anticipated tariff blueprint; refined copper avoided immediate levies and was set for a phased 15% import tariff effective 2027. Trump later ordered a fresh department reassessment ahead of the end-June cutoff date.

Persistent policy uncertainty has reopened cross-border arbitrage opportunities. COMEX’s premium against LME copper expanded markedly, redirecting substantial physical copper cargo toward U.S. port inventories amid pre-tariff stocking from global merchants.

Global mine supply continues tightening sharply. Goldman Sachs cut its 2026 global copper mine supply growth outlook by 350,000 tonnes, stemming from prolonged operational disruptions at Indonesia’s Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula flagship mines, whose full production capacity is only pencilled in for 2028.

U.S. copper inbound arrivals have outstripped consensus forecasts, prompting the bank to hike its non-U.S. refined copper supply deficit projection sharply from an initial 60,000 tonnes up to 640,000 tonnes.

Demand fundamentals stay well-supported. Citi analysts flagged resilient consumption anchored by AI infrastructure build-outs and global energy transition spending, upgrading price targets: LME copper is seen hitting $14,500 per tonne this month and $15,000 per tonne over the coming 12 months. Goldman Sachs lifted its end-2026 LME copper target from $12,465 to $13,735 per tonne.

“Market fears over potential U.S. refined copper import tariffs will keep buoying overall sentiment all the way through the end-June policy review deadline,”

 Citi commodity strategists remarked in official research notes.