Daily Commodities Highlights – Jul 02 – WTI slips below $68 as supply fears fade; gold holds gains

📌 What Moves Markets Today

WTI crude fell below $68 for the first time in months, extending its losing streak to a third day as supply concerns continue to ease. US crude output hit record highs, OPEC+ is expected to raise output quotas, and US-Iran talks are progressing. Gold is holding modest gains above $4,000, supported by a weaker dollar, but upside remains limited by Fed rate hike expectations.

🔴 Bearish for oil as supply pressures mount.

🟡 Gold neutral—short-term support from dollar weakness, but Fed expectations cap the upside.

🔥 Quick Takes

Energy

- Hungary's MOL: Received US Treasury license to continue negotiations on acquiring Serbia's NIS, valid through July 31 → A green light for the deal. Sanctions compliance is being managed.

- EIA: US SPR stocks hit lowest since May 20, 1983 → The SPR is draining fast. A long-term concern, but no immediate price impact.

- Sources: OPEC+ likely to raise August output quotas by 188,000 b/d at Sunday's meeting → More supply is coming. Bearish for oil.

- Russia importing gasoline from India to address shortages; at least 60,000 tons shipped → A sign of Russian refining stress. Unusual flows are emerging.

- UK RAC: Diesel prices posted their largest monthly drop on record → Relief at the pump for UK drivers. Lower fuel costs are easing inflation.

- UBS: Cut 2026 Brent forecast by $9 to $84/bbl; cut 2027 forecast to $75/bbl (from $85) → A bearish revision. The bank sees lower prices ahead.

- Trump: Oil and gasoline prices are falling fast, but "not fast enough." Launching "Freedom Fuel Network" with discounted gas in Philadelphia; expects prices to return to pre-Iran lows soon. → Political pressure on energy companies. Retailers are being nudged to cut prices.

Metals & Mining

- Sources: LME considering easing warehouse rules to attract metal flows into Hong Kong → A potential shift in global metal storage. Could improve liquidity.

- BHP: Plans to invest $1.5 billion to restart Chile's Cerro Colorado copper mine → Supply is coming back. A bearish signal for copper.

- UAE's Emirates Global Aluminum: Expects first bauxite production at Al Taweelah refinery in early Q3 → More aluminum supply is on the way.

Agriculture

- USDA: Investing $500 million to accelerate US fertilizer plant construction → Domestic fertilizer production is being boosted. Could ease farmer input costs.

- France drought could damage sugar beet crops; no rain relief expected soon → A supply risk for sugar. Bullish for sugar prices if the drought persists.

- EU agency: Global sea surface temperatures hit a record high for June → A long-term climate signal. Potential weather risks for agriculture.

Geopolitics

- Thailand confirms most of its vessels have safely departed the Strait of Hormuz → Traffic is normalizing. A reassuring sign.

- Trump: Iran negotiations are going well; denuclearization is progressing → Positive rhetoric. Markets are cautiously optimistic.

- Iran sources: Iran insists on maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz → A red line. The Strait may remain a flashpoint.

- US Vice President Vance: Free commercial shipping has been restored over the past three days → The Strait is effectively open. Oil supply risks are fading.

💡 Technical Analysis

Source: Investing.com – Prices as of Jul 02, 2026

WTI Crude – $67.80

WTI slipped below $68, extending its losing streak to a third day as supply fears ease. Record US output, expected OPEC+ quota hikes, and progress in US-Iran talks are all weighing on prices. The near-term bias remains bearish. Support is near $66.50. Resistance is at $69.00.

Gold – $4,047

Gold is holding above $4,000, supported by a weaker dollar, but upside is limited by Fed rate hike expectations. On the 4-hour chart, price remains below the 100-period SMA ($4,145), keeping the broader bias bearish. RSI is around 54, suggesting modest momentum. MACD has turned positive. Resistance is at $4,112 (38.2% Fibo), $4,145 (100-period SMA), and $4,164 (50% Fibo). Support is at $4,047 (23.6% Fibo) and $3,943 (swing low). A break above $4,145 would be needed to shift the near-term bias.

🔮 What to Watch This Week

- 🛢️ OPEC+ meeting on Sunday – output quota decision

- 🇺🇸 US nonfarm payrolls (Friday) – Fed policy implications

- 🇺🇸 US-Iran talks – any further progress?

- 🇪🇺 Eurozone inflation data – ECB expectations

- 🥇 Gold – will it break above $4,145?