USD/JPY Lingers Near 40-Year High; Intervention Risks, Overbought RSI Limit Upside Pre-NFP

USD/JPY stabilizes around 162.50 in Asian trade Thursday, clinging to a four-decade peak. Traders stay cautious amid looming Japanese official intervention threats, while a massive US-Japan yield spread sustains yen carry trades and underpins the pair.

Fed rate hike odds strengthened by Wednesday’s solid private payrolls, plus unresolved US-Iran tensions, offer extra support to the US dollar ahead of critical NFP data.

Technical Outlook

The pair hovers flat around 161.80, well above the 20-day EMA at 160.85; this key level keeps the near-term bullish bias valid.

The RSI stands at 76, deep in overbought territory, signaling strong upside momentum is ripe for a corrective pause rather than new highs.

· Support: 20-day EMA at 160.85. A sustained break will trigger deeper pullbacks.

· Resistance: Clear break above 162.00 unlocks targets of 163.00 and 164.00.

Near-Term Catalyst

Markets await June US nonfarm payrolls. Hot job figures will boost USD/JPY bulls, while weak prints trigger broad profit-taking. Japanese currency intervention remains a major volatility wildcard.