Daily Commodities Highlights – July 9, 2026 – Russia bans diesel exports while geopolitical risks keep oil markets on edge

📌 What Moves Markets Today

Russia imposed a diesel export ban through July 31, tightening global supply. US strikes hit 90 Iranian coastal targets, with Tehran threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz if attacked again. Brent remains supported near $75-80/bbl as markets weigh supply disruptions against potential recovery in Gulf exports.

🔴 Bearish for Oil → Goldman sees Gulf supply recovering by end-July if Iran waiver talks succeed.

🟢 Bullish for Oil → Russia's diesel ban and US-Iran military escalation tighten near-term supply.

🟡 Neutral for Gold → ETF outflows weigh but geopolitical uncertainty offers underlying support.

🔥 Quick Takes

🛢️ Energy

- Russia bans diesel exports until July 31 → Cuts global diesel supply, supports refined product prices.

- Azerbaijan's BTC crude loadings for August to hit lowest since 2008 → Tightens light crude supply in Europe.

- Citigroup maintains Q3 2026 Brent forecast at $75/bbl → Sees balanced market despite geopolitical noise.

- EU to unveil carbon market reforms on July 17 with more industrial flexibility → May ease compliance costs for manufacturers.

- India and Australia commit to strengthening energy trade → Supports stable energy product flows in Asia.

- HSBC cuts 2026 Brent forecast to $80/bbl, assumes Gulf exports normalize by late September → Downside risks if supply disruption persists.

- US EIA SPR stocks hit lowest since April 1983; crude inventories end 10-week drawdown streak → Signals potential supply tightness easing.

- Goldman expects Gulf crude supply to recover by end-July if Iran waiver talks continue, requiring 6.6m bpd through Hormuz → Massive volume needed for full restoration.

🥇 Gold & Metals

- Citigroup forecasts copper averaging $14,500/t in Q4 2026 → Supply constraints and green demand support bullish outlook.

- WGC reports $8.9bn outflow from global gold ETFs in June; net inflows of $8bn in H1 → Profit-taking weighs but long-term demand remains positive.

- Russia's gold reserves fall for sixth straight month, below $300bn at end-June → Central bank selling adds to gold supply.

🌍 Geopolitics

- US completes new strikes on Iran, hitting ~90 coastal military targets → Escalation raises risks to energy infrastructure.

- Iran threatens to close Strait of Hormuz if attacked again; vows broader retaliation → Key supply route risk remains elevated.

- Trump declares US-Iran temporary truce ended; may restore Hormuz blockade; says strikes pushed oil up modestly by ~$2/bbl → Market pricing in limited geopolitical premium.

🔮 Looking Ahead

- US-Iran developments: Any further military action could spike oil premiums.

- Russia diesel ban impact: Global refined product markets may tighten in coming weeks.

- EIA weekly inventory data: Thursday's report will indicate crude demand trends.

- EU carbon market reforms: July 17 announcement may impact energy sector pricing.

- Iran's Hormuz threat: Any disruption attempt would severely impact global oil flows.