Morning Brief: Major Breakthrough Reported in US‑Iran Cease‑fire Talks; Brent Tumbles Over 6% Intraday; Nvidia Earnings & PCE Due Overnight

【Key Snapshot】

· 🕊️ US and Iran reach consensus on free navigation through Strait of Hormuz; cease‑fire terms reportedly finalized. Brent crude drops over 6% intraday to $80.69/bbl.

· 📊 Dual market catalysts due overnight: US July core PCE inflation and Nvidia after‑hours earnings, which will shape September rate‑hike odds and near‑term AI sector moves.

【I. Market Outlook】

Key Events

- Sources say US‑Iran have agreed on cease‑fire provisions including free passage across the Strait of Hormuz. → Brent crude fell more than 6% intraday to $80.69/bbl; WTI‑3.12% at $82.36/bbl, Brent closed‑3.89% at $88.58/bbl.

Exclusive View

Oil sold off sharply as markets price in Hormuz reopening. This remains unconfirmed news from anonymous sources; no official text released and Iran ties implementation to US compliance. Overnight PCE and Nvidia results stand as two critical drivers beyond geopolitics for near‑term market direction.

【II. Overnight Market Performance】

‑ US Equities: Dow +0.30% at 53577.40; S&P500 +0.32% at 7677.24; Nasdaq +0.66% at 26151.30.

‑ European Equities: STOXX 600 +0.35% at 656.48. German DAX +0.61%; French CAC40‑0.16%; UK FTSE100 +0.29%.

‑ Fixed Income: US 10‑year yield‑6.34bps to 4.641%; 2‑year‑3.64bps to 4.20%.

‑ Commodities: WTI‑3.12% at $82.36/bbl; Brent‑3.89% at $88.58/bbl. Spot gold hit intraday high $4696.83 (mid‑May peak), closed +0.21% at $4662.05/oz. Silver flat at $68.70/oz.

‑ FX: US Dollar Index‑0.07% at 98.92. EURUSD +0.10% to 1.1674.

‑ Crypto: Bitcoin surged above $81000 intraday (mid‑May high), closed‑0.97% at $78216.

【III. Macro Highlights】

1. 🕊️ Major progress in US‑Iran cease‑fire talks, free Hormuz navigation agreed in draft terms. Sources from Pakistani military and Iranian security bodies say cease‑fire text is nearly complete, official announcements expected in coming days. Iran deputy foreign minister notes reopening hinges on US fulfilment of obligations.

Insight: Geopolitical risk premium is rapidly fading. Further oil downside remains possible if deal comes into force. No official document published yet and Iran keeps US compliance as precondition.

2. 🇨🇦 Canada imposes retaliatory tariffs on USD 20 bln worth of US goods, bilateral ties sink to multi‑year lows.

3. 📉 US July new‑home sales hit January low; consumer confidence drops to seven‑month trough, signalling cooling economic momentum.

4. 🇯🇵 Most economists expect BoJ to hike rates again in September. Japanese bond funds see record inflows, high yields attract European investors.

【IV. Corporate News】

1. 🤖 Nvidia releases after‑hours earnings. Consensus Q2 revenue ~$920 bln, almost doubling YoY; EPS ~$2.06. Key focus points: Vera Rubin GPU ramp pace, whether gross margin holds 75% guidance, Jensen Huang’s remarks on circular‑financing concerns. Note: Nvidia stock fell post‑earnings in past four quarters.

2. 🚀 Anthropic targets ~$2 trln IPO valuation, highlights USD 30 trln addressable market, heating‑up AI‑layer IPO competition.

3. 💾 OpenAI claims its in‑house Jalapeno chip outperforms Nvidia GB300 on power efficiency and latency, optimized for inference workloads.

【V. Key Events To Watch】

· 📊 US July core PCE price index: Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Expectations: core PCE YoY 3.3%, MoM 0.2%; headline PCE YoY 3.6%. Soft data lowers Sep hike odds; hot readings revive hawkish bets.

· 📊 US July durable‑goods orders, Q2 GDP revised estimate.

· 💾 Nvidia after‑hours earnings. Watch Vera Rubin rollout, gross‑margin level, financing‑risk comments.

· 🛢️ US EIA crude‑oil inventories.

· 🇦🇺 Australia July CPI, Bank of Thailand rate decision.