Morning Brief: Trump Says US-Iran Ceasefire "Hanging by a Thread"; Oil Rebounds Nearly 3%, S&P & Nasdaq Hit New Highs

At a Glance

🔥 Trump says US-Iran ceasefire is hanging by a thread; Iran issue on Beijing agenda. Oil rebounds nearly 3%.

📈 S&P & Nasdaq close at fresh record highs; all three indexes rise. Markets await Wednesday’s CPI.

🛢️ WTI crude +2.78% to $98.07/bbl; Brent +2.88% to $104.21/bbl.🇨🇳 Musk, Cook (Apple), Calhoun (Boeing) to join Trump’s China trip; Huang (NVIDIA) absent.

1. Market Outlook

Key Event

Trump: US-Iran ceasefire hanging by a thread. Calls Iran’s reply “trash”—did not finish reading. Iran defends “legitimate demands.” Trump arrives in Beijing Wednesday; Iran on agenda. Musk, Cook, Calhoun (Boeing), Culp (GE Aerospace) to join; Huang (NVIDIA) out (focus: agriculture & commercial aviation).

Market Reaction

All three US indexes rise; S&P & Nasdaq new closing highs. Oil +nearly 3%; WTI back above $98. Silver +6.33% (top metal); copper +2.6%. Dollar edges up; Bitcoin tops **$82,000**.

Exclusive View

“Hanging by a thread” deepens ceasefire doubts—Trump builds leverage for Beijing. Oil +3% prices zero ceasefire odds. Stocks decouple from oil: AI & earnings resilience support standalone rally. Wednesday CPI critical: hotter data puts Fed rate hikes back in focus.

2. Overnight Markets

Ceasefire fears lift oil; US stocks hit highs. Markets resilient ahead of CPI.

US Equities

Dow: +0.19% to 49,704.47

S&P 500: +0.19% to 7,412.84

Nasdaq: +0.10% to 26,274.13

💡 All rise; S&P/Nasdaq record closes. CPI caution; tech steady, chips strong.

European Equities

STOXX 600: flat at 612.79. Italy +0.8%; France CAC -0.7%.

💡 Divergent: Italy benefits from energy infrastructure demand; France hit by politics & energy costs.

Fixed Income

US 10Y yield: +4 bps to 4.404%.

💡 Oil rebound + weaker ceasefire odds lift yields. CPI inflation risk priced in.

Commodities

WTI June: +2.78% to $98.07/bbl

Brent July: +2.88% to $104.21/bbl

COMEX Gold: -0.04% to $4,718.7/oz

COMEX Silver: +6.33% to $85.485/oz

COMEX Copper: +2.63% to $6.4135/lb

LME Copper: +2.7% to **$13,943/ton**

💡 Oil +3% on geopolitics. Silver outperforms (industrial + safe-haven). LME copper near $14,000/ton.

Forex

Dollar Index: +0.07% to 97.917; EUR -0.03% to 1.178; USD/JPY +0.29% to 157.0.

Crypto

Bitcoin: $82,000+; Ethereum steady.

3. Macro News

🇺🇸🇨🇳 US-China Talks: Iran & Trade on AgendaTrump heads to Beijing Wednesday. Iran, trade, tariffs top agenda. Tech/CEO delegation (no NVIDIA).Insight: Iran ties to China talks—US may link sanctions relief to Iran concessions.

🇺🇦 Zelensky: Russia Rejects Peace; Kyiv Prepares AttacksUS-brokered ceasefire ending; both sides accuse violations.Insight: 3-day truce = PR move. Stalemate persists; Iran matters more for markets.

🇮🇳 India Rejects Sanctioned Russian LNG; Ship StrandedIndia negotiates on exempt LNG.Insight: India balances US sanctions & Russian energy. Long-term: cost vs. compliance.

📈 **IIF: Emerging Markets Inflows Hit $58.3B in April**China bonds: -$16.7B YTD.Insight: EM rebound = risk-on, not China-specific. Outflows persist in China debt.

🏠 US April Existing Home Sales +0.2% (Below Expectations)Annualized: 4.02M (vs. 4.05M). High rates & inflation hit demand.Insight: Housing = US weak spot. Low sales reflect durable goods pressure.

📊 **JPMorgan: Brent to Stay Above $100 Through 2026**Inventory declines + logistics bottlenecks keep market tight.Insight: $100/bbl = new normal, even if Strait reopens.

4. Corporate News

🚀 NVIDIA Vera Rubin: June Pilot, July Shipments$180M/rack. First clients: MSFT, Google, Amazon, Meta, Oracle. TSMC 3nm.— Faster launch-to-shipment. High entry bar squeezes smaller players.

📊 SoftBank FY2025 Profit ¥550.8B (Record High)2031 target: ¥1.7T operating profit. Builds energy storage for data centers; AI ecosystem expansion (OpenAI, Oracle).— Shift: invest AI → build infrastructure. Storage solves power limits.

💵 **Circle Q1 Revenue +20% to $694M; Net Profit -15%**USDC circulation +28% to $77B. ARC raises $222M; Agent Stack for AI payments.— USDC growth drives top line. Costs rise post-IPO. AI payments: strategic, small near-term.

🇫🇷 SoftBank to Invest Billions in French AI Data Centers— Global AI buildout. France: nuclear power = low cost, ideal for data centers.

5. Key Events to Watch Today

📊 US April CPI: Hot = Fed hike odds surge; stocks may pull back. In-line/cool = new highs likely.

🇩🇪 German April CPI: Guides ECB June policy.

🗣️ Fed Speakers: Williams (NY), Goolsbee (Chicago). CPI reaction shapes rate path.

📋 US April Budget: Deficit impacts Treasury supply.