Daily Commodities Highlights May 11

🎯 Top Story

Trump rejects Iran's response; diplomatic efforts stall

What happened: President Trump said he has read Iran's response and does not accept it. Sources indicate Iran has turned down the US proposal.

Why it matters: Diplomacy has hit a wall. With both sides digging in, military friction is likely to continue. The crude market remains on edge.

Market impact: Bullish for oil. No diplomatic breakthrough means supply risks stay elevated.

🔥 Quick Takes

⛽ Energy

Barclays maintains 2026 Brent forecast at $100 per barrel, sees upside risk → The bank stands firm. Oil has more room to rise than to fall.

Satellite images show possible large oil spill near Iran's Kharg Island → If confirmed, another hit to Iran's export capacity. Markets await verification.

Ukraine strikes major Russian refinery and oil transport facilities → Another blow to Russian refining capacity. Product exports could shrink further.

Maritime intelligence firm says three Iranian tankers have breached US blockade → The blockade is not airtight, but breach volumes remain small. Net effect: Iranian exports are still impaired.

European Commission issues guidance to transport and tourism sectors on persistent fuel supply disruptions → Brussels is preparing for a long squeeze. A sign that the crisis is seen as prolonged.

Libya's Zawiya refinery fully shut down after nearby clash → North African supply disruptions add to tightening refined product markets.

Citi maintains $120 per barrel crude forecast for the next three months → In line with Barclays. Short-term bullish conviction is firm.

Fitch: Brent to hold 100to

100to110 per barrel from May to July during Strait blockade, then fall to $70 per barrel by September → A front-loaded forecast. Supply shocks are seen as temporary.

Iran official: Oil production ongoing nationwide; no report of Kharg Island spill yet → Tehran denies the spill reports. Markets still waiting for third-party confirmation.

Saudi Aramco CEO warns: A 1 billion barrel production loss will slow the oil market's recovery → A massive supply hole. The road back is long.

Africa's richest man Dangote considers building new refinery in Kenya → African refining capacity is set to expand. Long-term positive for reducing product import reliance.

🥇 Metals & Mining

India PM urges citizens to stop buying gold; jeweler stocks plunge → A rare official call to suppress demand. Near-term blow to physical buying.

Kpler: May global coal imports expected to exceed 464,000 metric tons, third-highest monthly level on record → Strong coal demand. Countries are turning to other fuels amid energy shortages.

Mysteel: Global iron ore shipments at 28.59 million tons for May 4 to 10, down 4.89 million tons from prior week → Supply tightening. Supportive for iron ore prices.

Iran Situation

Iran proposes US lift oil sanctions within 30 days → Tehran sets its terms. Diplomatic posturing remains ongoing.

Trump rejects Iran's response; diplomatic efforts stall → See Top Story.

Sources say Iran has turned down the US proposal → Both sides dug in. No breakthrough in sight.

Saudi Arabia and UAE still moving crude through the Strait of Hormuz despite risks → Gulf majors are willing to take risks to keep exports flowing.

US military says it fired on two Iranian tankers, disabling them → Escalation from interception to direct attack. The situation is getting worse.

Other

Urea prices have surged more than 80 percent since the conflict began; global fertilizer prices jumping sharply → Agricultural input costs keep rising. Food inflation risks are growing.

MPOB: Malaysia April palm oil output at 1.63 million tons, up 18.37 percent month-on-month → A sharp rebound in production. Bearish for palm oil prices.

📊 Key Data Snapshot

💡 Final Take

Three themes dominate commodity markets today: bullish crude forecasts, military escalation, and surging fertilizer prices.

Crude forecasts: Barclays (100),Citi(100),Citi(120) and Fitch (100to100to110 through July) all see higher prices near-term. Fitch's September drop to $70 is worth watching — supply shocks are seen as temporary, not permanent.

Military escalation: The US fired on Iranian tankers, disabling them. Ukraine struck a Russian refinery. A possible oil spill near Kharg Island. Libya's refinery shut down. Supply-side shocks keep coming.

Fertilizer prices: Urea is up more than 80 percent. Food inflation risks are building. India's PM calling on citizens to stop buying gold is a rare demand-suppression signal.

Other signals: Malaysian palm oil output jumped 18 percent, pressuring prices. Coal imports hit the third-highest level on record, reflecting strong replacement demand.

Final takeaway: Banks are bullish on near-term crude, but Fitch's downsloping forecast is a reminder that rallies may not last. Military action is escalating. Fertilizer spikes will add to food inflation pressures.

Daily Commodities Highlights — May 11