Morning Brief: US Expands Secondary Sanctions Against Iran; Oil & Long‑End Yields Fall, Dow Rises For Two Straight Sessions While Nasdaq Lags

【Key Snapshot】

· 🛢️ The United States broadens secondary sanctions targeting Iran, aiming to cut every economic lifeline supporting Tehran. Crude oil prices and long‑dated Treasury yields move lower in tandem.

· 📉 Risk‑off sentiment triggers capital outflows from AI hardware stocks, with money flowing into gold, Bitcoin and the US dollar. US equities show sharp divergence.

· 📈 Bitcoin edges toward the $80,000 threshold; spot gold hits $4681 intraday, marking its highest level in nearly three months.

【I. Market Outlook】

Key Events

- US expands secondary sanctions against Iran: US Treasury Secretary Bessent announces the “Economic D‑Day” operation. Foreign firms and entities maintaining commercial ties with Iran face potential exclusion from the US‑dollar financial system. → WTI crude -2.35% at $85.01/bbl; Brent crude -2.35% at $92.17/bbl. US 10‑year Treasury yield falls 3.99 bps to 4.698%.

Exclusive View

If tougher US sanctions fully shut down Iranian exports, global supply gaps may worsen in the short term before rebalancing. Bessent’s emphasis on economic tools lowers risks of further military escalation. Capital rotation out of AI hardware including Nvidia and Nasdaq‑heavy tech into defensive assets such as gold, Bitcoin and the US dollar shows markets are pricing both heightened geopolitical risks and persistently elevated long‑term bond yields.

【II. Overnight Market Performance】

‑ US Equities: Dow Jones +0.26% at 53417.16; S&P 500 -0.28% at 7652.86; Nasdaq Composite -0.76% at 25980.19.

‑ European Equities: Pan‑European STOXX 600 flat at 654.21. German DAX -0.11%; French CAC 40 -0.37%; UK FTSE 100 +0.35%.

‑ Fixed Income: US 10‑year Treasury yield -3.99bps to 4.698%; 2‑year yield unchanged at 4.234%.

‑ Commodities: WTI crude -2.35% at $85.01/bbl; Brent crude -2.35% at $92.17/bbl. Spot gold +1.05% at $4651.24/oz, intraday high $4681, the strongest reading in almost three months. Silver flat at $68.96/oz.

‑ FX: US Dollar Index +0.17% at 98.99. EURUSD -0.15% to 1.1662; USDCAD +0.57% to 1.3842.

‑ Crypto Assets: Bitcoin +1.59% at $78966, edging near $80000 for the first time since mid‑May. Ethereum +1.54% at $2430.

【III. Macro Highlights】

1. 🛢️ US broadens secondary sanctions against Iran, Bessent unveils “Economic D‑Day”: Washington expands secondary sanctions to cut every economic lifeline sustaining Iran. Bessent issues a final warning for global counterparts to sever business links with Iran, or risk locking key enterprises and entities out of the dollar‑based financial system.

Insight: Deploying dollar‑system exclusion as a sanction represents a new milestone in the weaponization of global finance. While export volumes from Iran could shrink further near‑term, lower oil prices reflect market pricing of reduced odds for military escalation.

2. ⚖️ US‑Canada trade talks collapse, Trump threatens 50% tariffs on Canadian automobiles: Negotiations yield no deal. Threatened auto tariffs heighten tensions across North American trade relations.

3. 📊 Reuters‑Ipsos poll: US public support for military action against Iran falls to the lowest level since conflict onset. Only 31% of Americans back military operations against Iran, while Trump’s approval ratings stay near historic lows.

【IV. Corporate News】

1. 💾 Nvidia informs hyperscale clients of over 15% price hikes for AI servers next year and explores investment in AI search firm Perplexity. Higher memory‑chip costs are passed downstream, extending the AI‑hardware inflation chain.

2. 🤖 Anthropic’s flagship Fable 5 model sees weak commercial uptake. Enterprise clients resist paying premium prices for top‑tier AI models, signalling price sensitivity across AI application layers and softer‑than‑expected pricing power for leading large‑model products.

【V. Key Events To Watch】

· 🇦🇺 RBA releases August monetary policy meeting minutes.

· 🇩🇪 Germany August IFO Business Climate Index, prior reading 86.6.