Morning Brief: US-Iran Peace Deal Set for Friday Signing, Oil Prices Drop Over 3%, SpaceX Tops $2 Trillion Market Cap on Debut Key Snapshot

Key Snapshot

🕊️ According to former President Trump and Pakistan’s Prime Minister, the US and Iran have reached a peace agreement to be signed this Friday. Trump also held a phone call with President Putin and expressed willingness to push for an end to the Ukraine conflict.

📈 All three major US stock benchmarks posted a roughly 7% weekly gain. The S&P 500 rose 0.50%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.70% to close at 51,202 points.

🛢️ WTI crude futures settled down 3.22% at $84.88 per barrel, posting a 6.25% loss for the week. Brent crude fell 3.37% to $87.33 per barrel.

🚀 SpaceX surged 19% on its trading debut. Its market capitalization exceeded $2 trillion, making it the sixth-largest company in the United States.

I. Market Outlook

Core Events

Former President Trump and Pakistan’s Prime Minister confirmed that the finalized US-Iran peace deal will be signed this Friday. Trump spoke with President Putin and pledged to facilitate a resolution to the Ukraine war. The United Arab Emirates will release billions of dollars, up to $20 billion, in frozen assets to Iran, in exchange for Iran halting attacks on UAE territory. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rebounded to 48.9 in June from a record low, beating the market consensus of 46.0. The one-year inflation expectation fell to 4.6%.

Market Reaction

The three major US stock indexes gained around 7% over the week, with the Dow Jones closing at 51,202 points. WTI crude slid 3.22% to $84.88 per barrel, representing a 6.25% weekly decline. Gold prices were flat at $4,213, down 2.66% for the week. The US Dollar Index held steady at 99.75, and USD/JPY closed at 160.21.

Exclusive Insight

The clear signing timeline for Friday has led the market to fully price in the upcoming peace deal. Oil prices have fallen to around $85 per barrel, returning to levels seen before the outbreak of the Iran-related conflict, meaning the entire geopolitical risk premium has been erased. SpaceX’s 19% rally and $2 trillion market cap on its debut show that market enthusiasm for Elon Musk’s business ecosystem remains strong.

II. Overnight Market Performance

Summary

Optimism surrounding the US-Iran peace deal drove a strong weekly rally across US equities. Oil prices continued to slide, while SpaceX delivered a standout debut performance

— US Equities: The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 353.51 points, or 0.70%, to 51,202.26. The S&P 500 added 37.16 points, or 0.50%, to 7,431.46. The Nasdaq Composite gained 79.18 points, or 0.31%, to 25,888.84. All three benchmarks advanced approximately 7% for the week.

💡 The roughly 7% weekly gain marks the strongest weekly performance since 2025. Investors are heavily positioned for the upcoming US-Iran peace accord. Technology stocks led the gains but saw moderated momentum versus the prior session, as traders await official confirmation on Friday.

— European Equities: The STOXX Europe 600 jumped 1.9% to 633.21, with a 1.7% weekly increase.

💡 European stocks notched their steepest single-day gain in recent weeks. The fund release deal between the UAE and Iran, combined with US-Iran peace hopes, lifted regional markets.

— Fixed Income: The 2-year US Treasury yield rose 0.7 basis points to 4.077%. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed 1.4 basis points to 4.479%.

💡 Treasury yields edged higher. As markets digested the peace deal news, investors also monitored minor shifts in inflation expectations. The decline in five-year consumer inflation expectations to 3.4% lent support to bond prices.

— Commodities: WTI July crude futures fell 3.22% to $84.88 per barrel, down 6.25% week-on-week. Brent August crude dropped 3.37% to $87.33 per barrel, with a 6.19% weekly loss. Spot gold edged up 0.03% to $4,213.70 per troy ounce, posting a 2.66% weekly decline.

💡 Oil prices have returned to pre-conflict levels, fully stripping out the geopolitical risk premium. Gold ended the week lower, pressured by a firmer US dollar and cooling inflation expectations amid cheaper crude oil.

— Forex Market: The US Dollar Index remained unchanged at 99.75. EUR/USD dipped 0.08% to 1.1568. USD/JPY rose 0.18% to 160.21.

💡 The US Dollar Index stayed below the 100 level. The Japanese yen weakened past 160.20. Currency intervention risks persist as the market tests the Bank of Japan’s tolerance level.

— Crypto Assets: Bitcoin traded sideways at $63,467.12, and Ethereum stood at $1,661.63.

💡 Bitcoin consolidated within the $63,000–$64,000 range, awaiting clearer macroeconomic signals.

III. Macro News

🕊️ Former President Trump and Pakistan’s Prime Minister confirmed the US-Iran peace deal will be signed on Friday. Trump also spoke with President Putin and committed to pushing for an end to the Ukraine conflict.

Insight: Peace signals have emerged on two major geopolitical fronts simultaneously. This late-term diplomatic push has prompted markets to price in lower global geopolitical risks.

💰 The United Arab Emirates will release billions of dollars, up to $20 billion, in frozen funds to Iran, in exchange for Iran halting attacks on UAE territories.

Insight: This deal reveals cracks in the US-led sanctions framework, as Gulf nations conduct independent negotiations. The move reflects risk hedging among regional countries. It may both boost and complicate the US-Iran negotiation process.

📊 The June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rebounded to 48.9, beating the consensus forecast of 46.0. The one-year inflation expectation fell to 4.6%, while the five-year expectation dropped to 3.4%.

Insight: The rebound in consumer sentiment was mainly driven by lower gasoline prices. Easing inflation expectations are a positive signal for the Federal Reserve, showing inflation expectations remain well-anchored. Even so, the reading of 48.9 remains near historic lows, indicating a long road to full recovery.

🇪🇺 ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn stated the latest rate hike was aimed at preventing spillover risks from rising energy prices, and further monetary tightening remains uncertain.

Insight: Divisions remain within the ECB over July rate decisions. Rehn’s cautious stance is consistent with prior signals pointing to a likely pause. Weak economic growth across Europe is the biggest constraint against additional rate hikes.

IV. Corporate News

🚀 SpaceX rallied 19% on its trading debut, with its market capitalization surpassing $2 trillion to become the sixth-largest company in the US. The stock closed at around $161, representing a 15% to 30% gain from its IPO price.

—— With a $2 trillion market cap, SpaceX has overtaken Meta and now ranks behind only Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon and Google. The steady rally without extreme volatility on debut indicates reasonable valuation and strong market demand. The market fully recognizes the long-term growth potential of Elon Musk’s company.

💾 SK Hynix plans to list on the Nasdaq as early as August.

—— Following in the footsteps of SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic, SK Hynix is moving forward with its US public listing. Choosing the Nasdaq positions the firm as a tech growth stock rather than a traditional semiconductor company. The listing of this leading AI memory chip maker will be a major market event in the second half of 2026.

🤖 The US government has requested Anthropic to block overseas users from accessing its Fable 5 and Mythos 5 AI models on national security grounds.

Insight: National security reviews have become a new regulatory focus for the AI industry. This restriction directly hinders Anthropic’s global expansion and signals stricter export controls will be imposed on US AI companies going forward.

V. Key Focus for Today

🇫🇷 The G7 Summit kicks off in France. Core agenda items include the Iran issue, the Ukraine conflict and AI regulation. Markets will watch the summit statement for remarks on the US-Iran peace deal.

🎙️ ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to deliver a speech. Investors will look for clues on the July monetary policy outlook following the latest rate hike.

📊 US June New York Fed Manufacturing Index and May Industrial Production data will be released, to assess the resilience of the manufacturing sector amid elevated interest rates.