US-Saudi Nuclear Agreement Draws Debate Over Safeguards and Regional Security

The Trump administration submitted its civil nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia to the U.S. Congress on Wednesday, beginning a 90-session-day review period.

Unlike the 2009 U.S.-United Arab Emirates agreement, the new framework does not prohibit Saudi Arabia from pursuing domestic uranium enrichment or spent-fuel reprocessing, nor does it include the IAEA Additional Protocol, which provides inspectors with broader verification authority. These issues have become central points of debate among lawmakers and nuclear non-proliferation experts.

Saudi Arabia's energy strategy

Saudi Arabia relies heavily on oil and natural gas to generate electricity, including for desalination and air conditioning. Expanding nuclear power could reduce domestic oil consumption and potentially allow the kingdom to export more crude over the longer term as part of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's economic diversification strategy.

Saudi officials have also stated that the kingdom would seek nuclear weapons if Iran were to acquire them, a position that has prompted concern among some non-proliferation analysts. Earlier this year, Saudi Arabia confirmed plans to develop domestic uranium resources capable of producing yellowcake for commercial purposes.

Israeli concerns

The agreement was initially discussed alongside broader efforts to normalize diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

Former U.S. State Department adviser Dan Shapiro said Washington "appears to have given it away without normalization," arguing that the United States had surrendered an important source of diplomatic leverage.

Israeli lawmaker Avigdor Liberman also criticized the agreement, writing on X that a Saudi civilian nuclear program could ultimately contribute to a regional arms race.

International competition

Saudi Arabia has also received interest from other international nuclear technology providers. China's state-owned CNNC submitted a proposal in 2023, while Russia's Rosatom, South Korea and France have all pursued cooperation opportunities.

Some analysts have said competition among suppliers has strengthened Saudi Arabia's negotiating position during discussions with Washington.

Outstanding technical questions

One unresolved issue is whether any future uranium enrichment facilities in Saudi Arabia would remain under foreign operational control or allow direct Saudi participation.

The agreement establishes a legal framework for potential nuclear fuel-cycle cooperation but does not require the transfer of enrichment technology.

Sources: Reuters, Investing.com, JTA, Newsweek and Al-Monitor. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.