WTI holds near March lows above $72.50 as supply concerns ease but nuclear uncertainty lingers

Partial resumption of Hormuz traffic and a US sanctions waiver on Iranian oil cap any recovery. Mixed nuclear signals keep bears cautious ahead of a decisive break below the 200-day SMA.

Source: US Treasury, Fars News Agency, White House

Market Snapshot

• WTI spot price: ~$72.50 ↓ near March low
• 200-day SMA: below current price · key technical floor
• US sanctions waiver (Iran): 60 days · valid through 21 Aug 2026
• Hormuz traffic status: partially resumed · limited daily vessel transits

WTI remains under pressure as supply outlook improves

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil traded in a narrow range just above $72.50 per barrel during Wednesday's Asian session, consolidating near its lowest level since early March after a prolonged decline driven by easing supply concerns.

Two developments have significantly improved the global supply outlook. First, an Iranian military source told Fars News Agency that a limited number of vessels are now being allowed to transit the Strait of Hormuz each day under coordination with Iran's Revolutionary Guards Navy, partially reversing the disruption that had previously supported oil prices.

Second, the US Treasury Department announced a temporary 60-day sanctions waiver, effective through 21 August 2026, allowing the production, transportation, and sale of Iranian crude oil, petroleum, and petrochemical products. The waiver forms part of the broader US-Iran agreement framework and is expected to return additional supply to the global energy market.

Despite the bearish supply backdrop, downside momentum remains limited. The key source of uncertainty is Iran's nuclear position. President Donald Trump stated that Iran had agreed to the highest level of future IAEA nuclear inspections, a claim later supported by Vice President JD Vance following negotiations in Switzerland. However, Iran's Foreign Ministry denied making any new nuclear commitments.

These conflicting statements continue to maintain a geopolitical risk premium in crude prices, preventing a sharper selloff. From a technical perspective, WTI has also remained above its 200-day Simple Moving Average, which continues to act as an important support level. Nevertheless, the broader fundamental outlook remains tilted to the downside as long as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to normalize and US sanctions relief remains in effect.

Key Drivers

• Strait of Hormuz traffic partially restored
• 60-day US sanctions waiver on Iranian oil exports
• Contradictory US-Iran nuclear statements
• 200-day SMA continues to provide technical support
• Lebanon conflict remains relatively subdued

Sources: Fars News Agency · US Treasury Department (Iran sanctions waiver valid through 21 Aug 2026) · White House statements · Iran Foreign Ministry statements