WTI Rebounds Toward $71.50 as Hormuz Tensions Lift Oil Prices, Supply Outlook Limits Gains

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rebounded on Thursday, rising from around $69.00 to an intraday high near $72.50 after reports of a security incident involving a commercial vessel in the Gulf of Oman. However, the rally lost momentum later in the session, with prices settling near $71.50, suggesting that investors remain cautious despite renewed geopolitical concerns.

The Trigger: Another Attack, Another Pause

According to market reports, a container vessel was struck in the Gulf of Oman, prompting the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to suspend parts of its planned maritime assistance operations near the Strait of Hormuz while authorities assessed the situation. Reports also indicated that Iranian authorities reiterated warnings regarding vessels operating outside designated shipping routes, adding to uncertainty surrounding regional shipping security.

Although similar geopolitical developments have previously supported prolonged gains in oil prices, the latest rebound proved relatively short-lived as traders continued to focus on broader supply conditions.

Why the Supply Outlook Matters

Supply fundamentals remain an important influence on crude prices. Market data showed tanker throughput reached elevated levels earlier this week, while Saudi Arabia reportedly resumed exports from Ras Tanura following previous disruptions. In addition, a temporary U.S. waiver allowing purchases of already-loaded Iranian crude has added to near-term supply expectations.

Meanwhile, Brent's prompt spread reportedly moved into contango for the first time since the recent regional conflict began, indicating that immediate supply concerns have eased compared with earlier weeks. Reports that some OPEC producers may reassess production strategies have also contributed to expectations of a more balanced—or potentially oversupplied—market heading into 2026.

One supportive factor remains inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, which continue to sit below historically comfortable operating levels. However, that alone has yet to outweigh broader supply developments.

The PCE Connection

Recent U.S. inflation data also remain in focus. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, rose 3.4% year-over-year in May, while headline PCE accelerated to 4.1%. Although higher energy prices contributed to inflation earlier in the year, the subsequent pullback in crude prices may reduce future energy-related inflation pressures if the recent easing in geopolitical tensions continues.

For traders across Southeast Asia, a less aggressive outlook for U.S. monetary policy could help moderate U.S. dollar strength, potentially reducing currency-related hedging costs for energy imports.

Levels to Watch

WTI faces initial resistance around $72.50, followed by $75.00 and the 200-period EMA near $78.00. On the downside, $69.00 remains an important support level, with a sustained move below that area potentially exposing prices to further declines.

Technical indicators suggest short-term momentum has weakened, although oversold conditions could support intermittent rebounds. Even so, future price direction is likely to depend on developments in the Strait of Hormuz, global supply conditions, and broader macroeconomic sentiment.

Market Focus

Investors will closely monitor geopolitical developments in the Middle East, OPEC-related production updates, and upcoming U.S. economic data for fresh signals that could influence oil prices and expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

Risk Disclaimer

Risk Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Commodity markets are subject to significant volatility and may react to geopolitical events, economic data, policy changes, and shifts in market sentiment. Readers should conduct their own research and carefully assess their financial circumstances before making investment decisions.