COMEX Copper Rallies Over 2% as June 30 Tariff Deadline Looms

Copper futures in New York and London rose in tandem on the first trading day of June, stoked by anxiety ahead of a critical U.S. refined copper tariff decision due June 30.

At the close, COMEX copper jumped more than 2% to $6.58/lb, while LME copper rose nearly 2% to above $13,800.

source：tradingview

The rally hinges on a key deadline: the U.S. Commerce Department must submit a copper-market assessment to President Trump by June 30, 2026, including a recommendation on whether to impose import tariffs on refined copper.

source：tradingview

In July 2025, COMEX copper plunged 20% in a single day after the White House unveiled a milder-than-expected tariff plan. Under that proposal, refined copper escaped immediate duties, with a 15% tariff phased in starting January 1, 2027. Trump subsequently ordered the Commerce Department to deliver a fresh review by June 30, 2026.

The uncertainty has reignited arbitrage flows. U.S. copper’s premium to global benchmarks widened sharply, drawing renewed physical copper inflows to American ports.

Supply fundamentals are also tightening. Goldman Sachs trimmed its 2026 global copper mine supply growth estimate by 350,000 tonnes, citing persistent disruptions at Indonesia’s Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula mines, which are not expected to return to full capacity until 2028.

U. S. copper imports have run well ahead of expectations, prompting Goldman Sachs to raise its non-U.S. supply deficit forecast from 60,000 tonnes to 640,000 tonnes.

Demand remains resilient, underpinning prices. Citi analysts highlighted robust consumption from AI buildout and energy transition, lifting their forecasts: LME copper is seen hitting $14,500/ton this month and $15,000/ton within 12 months. Goldman Sachs raised its end-2026 target from $12,465/ton to $13,735/ton.

“Lingering fears of U.S. tariffs on refined copper may support sentiment until at least the end-June review deadline,” Citi wrote in a note — verbatim as reported by Bloomberg.