Daily Commodities Highlights – Jun 23 – Saudi output plunges; US authorizes Iran oil sales; gold drops to 2-week low

📌 What Moves Markets Today

Saudi crude output fell by 651,000 b/d in April to 6.316 million b/d, its lowest in years. The US issued a 60-day license authorizing Iran oil sales. WTI is trading near $72.75, its lowest since early March. Gold dropped to a 2-week low around $4,115 as the dollar remains strong.

🔴 Bearish for oil as supply returns.

🔴 Gold under pressure from strong dollar and fading geopolitical risk.

🔥 Quick Takes

Energy

- Kpler: Asia expected to import about 22.18 million b/d of crude in June, up from 20.35 million b/d in May → Asian demand is recovering. A bullish signal for oil.

- Russia Deputy PM Novak: Instructed antitrust authorities to monitor fuel prices and take action if needed → Moscow is watching prices closely. Intervention could come.

- India government: May crude output down 4.6% year-on-year; natural gas down 4.9% → Domestic production is falling. Import dependence is rising.

- JODI: Saudi April crude output fell 651,000 b/d to 6.316 million b/d. Stocks fell 12.678 million barrels to 139.967 million. Product exports fell 148,000 b/d to 1.009 million b/d. → A massive drop across the board. Saudi supply is being crushed.

- Tanker tracking: Two VLCCs transited the Strait into the Gulf to load 4 million barrels; two smaller crude tankers also transited → Traffic is returning. A gradual normalization.

- Qatar: Ras Laffan gas plant explosion was an accident, not an attack. Exports unaffected. → A relief for gas markets. No supply disruption.

- US Treasury: Issued a 60-day general license authorizing Iran oil sales → A major shift. Iranian oil could return to the market.

- Barclays: Maintains 2026 Brent forecast at $100/bbl despite improving Gulf flows → A strong bullish view. Supply concerns are not fully priced out.

- Malaysia finance ministry: Diesel prices to be adjusted to market rates from July 1; eligible citizens can buy subsidized diesel at 2.10 ringgit per liter → Subsidy reform. A step toward market pricing.

- Sources: India's June US LPG imports expected to exceed 1 million metric tons → US exports to Asia are rising. A growing trade flow.

Metals & Mining

- RBI: Gold reserves unchanged at 880.52 metric tons as of May 29 → No change. Central bank holdings are stable.

- Aluminum hits 3-month low on Middle East peace progress → Supply recovery expectations are weighing on prices.

- Deutsche Bank: Expects Q3 gold at $4,300/oz, Q4 at $4,800/oz. If the Fed hikes, gold could drop to $3,800/oz. → A wide range. The Fed path is the key variable.

- Korea trade minister: Reached positive consensus with EU on steel duty-free import quotas → A trade win for Korea. Export support.

Agriculture

- FAO: New El Niño threatens global agriculture → Weather risks for crops. A potential bullish factor for food prices.

Geopolitics

- Trump: If Iran does not comply with the deal, "I will do what is necessary." Could quickly reimpose a blockade. → A warning shot. The deal is not final yet.

- Oman: Reaffirms commitment to free and safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz → A stabilizing signal. Gulf shipping is being protected.

💡 Technical Analysis

WTI Crude – $72.75

WTI has dropped to its lowest since early March, trading near $72.75 as markets watch US-Iran moves. The API weekly crude report is due later today. The near-term bias remains bearish as supply fears continue to fade, though Asian demand is showing signs of recovery.

Gold – $4,115

Gold dropped to a near two-week low around $4,115. The dollar remains strong on hawkish Fed expectations. Technically, the pair remains below the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart ($4,311), keeping the near-term bias bearish. MACD has turned marginally positive, hinting at tentative relief, but RSI at 37.17 remains in weak territory. This suggests any bounce is likely to be corrective. A sustained reclaim of $4,311 is needed to ease downside pressure.

🔮 What to Watch This Week

- 🛢️ US-Iran deal implementation – will the 60-day license hold?

- 🇺🇸 API crude inventory report – due later today

- 🇸🇦 Saudi output – further declines?

- 🏦 Deutsche Bank gold forecast – will Fed hikes force a drop to $3,800?

- 🌾 El Niño – impact on global crop production