Daily Forex Highlights – Jun 29 – ECB forum kicks off; central bank chiefs to speak; Fed seen on hold through 2027

📌 What Moves Markets Today

The ECB's annual Sintra forum begins today, with Fed Chair Warsh, ECB President Lagarde, BOE Governor Bailey, and BoC Governor Macklem all speaking this week. Markets are watching for policy signals. A Reuters poll shows economists now expect the Fed to keep rates at 3.50%-3.75% through end-2027, a hawkish shift from earlier expectations of a cut. The dollar remains supported. Japan's retail sales rose for a third straight month, while Korean stocks saw a record foreign selloff.

🟡 Neutral for USD—the Fed is on hold for longer, but the market has already priced this in.

🔴 Bearish for KRW on record foreign outflows.

🔥 Quick Takes

Dollar

- Fed Chair Warsh appointed two senior central bank economists as advisers → A signal that the Fed is reinforcing its research capacity. No immediate policy signal.

- Reuters poll: Fed expected to hold rates at 3.50%-3.75% through end-2027 (earlier June survey expected one rate cut) → A hawkish shift. The "higher for longer" narrative is firming.

- US June consumer confidence beat initial estimates, boosted by lower gasoline prices → Consumers are feeling relief at the pump. A modest positive for the economy.

- Citi: Raised 10-year Treasury yield target but remains bullish on bonds → A nuanced view. Higher yields ahead, but bonds still offer value.

Euro

- Bank of America: Now expects ECB to hike in September 2026, versus July 2026 previously → A slight delay. The ECB is in no rush.

- Germany considering €20 billion tax cut plan; Merz pushing reform agenda → Fiscal stimulus could boost growth. A positive signal for the euro.

Yen

- Japan retail sales rose for third straight month, driven by wage growth and subsidies → Consumption is holding up. A positive signal for the economy.

- Japan government policy blueprint: Targets annual real GDP growth above 1% → A growth target. Not a market driver.

- FT: Japan IPO count hit 15-year low in H1 2026; lack of near-term IPO-ready startups means the situation may not improve soon → A structural issue. Not an immediate market factor.

Other

- ECB Sintra forum kicks off this week: Fed Chair Warsh, ECB President Lagarde, BOE Governor Bailey, and BoC Governor Macklem to speak → A key event. Markets will parse every word for policy signals.

- PBOC: Conducted 157.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 300 billion yuan of overnight reverse repos → Liquidity injection. A modest easing signal.

- Korea: Announced major projects in AI hardware and AI data centers → A long-term industrial policy. Not an immediate market driver.

- Foreign investors sold a record 7.7 trillion won of KOSPI stocks on Monday, the largest single-day selloff on record → A massive outflow. Bearish for the won.

- WSJ survey: Korea inflation may exceed 3% for a second consecutive month → Inflation remains elevated. The BOK may need to stay hawkish.

- Thailand central bank governor: Will not hike unless necessary; expects inflation to stay within target in 2026 and 2027; baht weakness is in line with market trends; will allow banks to issue baht stablecoins this year → A dovish stance. No rate hikes expected.

- Australia APRA: Proposes easing bank risk weights to free up capital for lending → A regulatory easing. Could support credit growth.

- Indonesia senior deputy governor: Will use all tools to maintain liquidity → A commitment to market stability. Rupiah support is in place.

💡 Technical Analysis

Source: Investing.com – Prices as of Jun 29, 2026

EUR/USD – 1.1440

The pair remains under pressure, with repeated failures to break above the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. RSI near 42 suggests a gradual recovery from oversold conditions rather than a bullish shift. MACD has turned modestly positive, but the overall structure remains bearish. Resistance is at 1.1440 and 1.1514 (100-period SMA). A break above 1.1514 would be needed to ease the current bearish tone.

GBP/USD – 1.3460

The pair is trading higher near 1.3460. The near-term bias has turned mildly bullish as price returned above the 20-period EMA at 1.3425. RSI at 53 suggests steady momentum. Resistance is at 1.3500 (May 26 high) and 1.3580 (descending trendline). Support is at 1.3425 (20-EMA) and 1.3327 (uptrend line).

🔮 What to Watch This Week

- 🇪🇺 ECB Sintra forum – central bank speakers

- 🇺🇸 Fed Chair Warsh speech – any policy hints?

- 🇺🇸 US jobs data (Friday) – Fed policy implications

- 🇰🇷 Korea foreign outflows – will they continue?

- 🇯🇵 Japan retail sales – can momentum hold?