Oil Holds Near $89 as Hormuz Tensions Put Supply Back in Focus

Oil prices are holding firm near recent highs as hopes for a quick U.S.-Iran deal fade and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slows again.

Brent crude rose as much as 1% to $89.40 on Monday, while WTI moved above $82. Both benchmarks gained more than 5% last week as attacks on tankers and energy infrastructure pushed geopolitical risk back into prices.

The latest concern is not just the stalled talks. It is what is happening at sea.

Only five commodity vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, with none recorded on Sunday, compared with 31 the previous weekend, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters.

That is a sharp drop for a waterway that normally carries a major share of global oil and LNG shipments.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said over the weekend that Tehran had not decided whether to resume talks with Washington. At the same time, the UAE accused Iran of attacking another ADNOC tanker in the strait.

For oil traders, this keeps the supply risk firmly on the radar.

There is still a ceiling on the rally, though. Prices have already recovered most of their losses from earlier this month, while concerns over global demand and rising U.S. inventories remain a drag on the broader market.

That leaves crude caught between two very different forces: geopolitical risk is pushing prices higher, while demand concerns are keeping buyers cautious.

Brent around $89 is the level to watch. Any further disruption to tanker traffic or oil infrastructure could quickly bring another wave of buying, while signs of a diplomatic breakthrough would take some of the risk premium back out of the market.