Daily Commodities Highlights – Jun 11 – OPEC output hits 20-year low; Russia refinery hit by drone

📌 Top Story

OPEC output falls to lowest in over 20 years; Russia refinery hit by drone

What happened: A Reuters survey showed OPEC crude output fell by 1.06 million barrels per day in May to its lowest level in more than 20 years. Separately, Russia's Kuibyshev refinery stopped production after a drone attack.

Why it matters: Supply keeps tightening. OPEC is pumping at levels not seen in decades, and Russian refining is taking more hits. The market is losing barrels from multiple angles.

Market impact: 🟢 Bullish for crude. Supply disruptions are accelerating.

🔥 Quick Takes

Energy

- 🇷🇺 Russia's Kuibyshev refinery stops production after drone attack → Another Russian refinery offline. Product exports will tighten further.

- 🇮🇳 India considering Canada as a potential crude supplier → Diversifying away from traditional sources. A long-term shift.

- 🇺🇸 EIA: Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks at lowest since August 18, 2023 → SPR is being drained fast, leaving less cushion for emergencies.

- 📊 Reuters survey: OPEC May output down 1.06 million b/d to lowest in over 20 years → See Top Story.

- 🇺🇸 US Energy Secretary Wright: Oil will be put back into the SPR early next year. Nearly 100 vessels have used Jones Act waivers. → Refilling is coming, but not yet. The number of waivers granted shows the administration is actively responding.

- 🇮🇶 Iraq wants to increase Kurdistan oil exports to ensure wage payments → More supply could come from the north. A potential bearish factor if realized.

- 🇮🇶 SOMO: Sets July Basra Medium crude official selling price to Asia at $0.30 per barrel premium to Oman/Dubai average → A small premium aimed at attracting Asian buyers with competitive pricing.

- 🛢️ Shell CEO: The oil market has a 1.2 billion barrel supply gap due to the Strait crisis. Upward pressure on oil and gas prices will persist for a long time. → A stark warning from a major industry player. The gap is enormous.

Geopolitics

- 🇺🇸 US military confirms second straight day of strikes on Iran → Escalation continues. No letup in military action.

- 🇺🇸 Trump says millions of barrels of oil are leaving Iran every night. Energy secretary says he is not aware. → Conflicting messages create uncertainty over actual Iranian export levels.

- 🇺🇸 WSJ: CFTC proposes new rules to regulate prediction markets → A regulatory move that is not a commodity market driver.

- 🇩🇪 Hapag-Lloyd CEO: After the Strait reopens, the company will rethink long-term Gulf shipping. But many practices will return to pre-war norms. → Some changes may stick, but a complete overhaul is unlikely.

💡 Technical Analysis

Source: Investing.com – Prices as of Jun 11, 2026 03:14 AM (GMT-4:00)

WTI Crude – $90.33

Resistance: 90.82 (R1) / 91.18 (R2) / 91.39 (R3) → Needs to clear R1 for any recovery

Support: 90.25 (S1) / 90.04 (S2) / 89.68 (S3) → Break below S1 opens more downside

The technical picture remains weak. RSI at 48.4 is neutral but trending lower. STOCHRSI at 0 is deeply oversold. On the fundamental side, OPEC's output collapse and Russian refining outages are bullish, but price action suggests the market has not yet priced in the full impact.

🔮 Looking Ahead

- 🇷🇺 More Russian refinery attacks?

- 🇺🇸 SPR refilling – timing and pace

- 🇮🇶 Iraq Kurdistan exports – will they materialize?

- 🇺🇸🇮🇷 US-Iran strikes – will diplomacy resurface?

- 🛢️ Shell's 1.2 billion barrel gap – market reaction