Daily Commodities Highlights – Jun 25 – WTI returns to pre-war levels near $69; gold clings to $4,000

📌 What Moves Markets Today

WTI crude has fallen back to around $69, returning to levels last seen before the Middle East conflict escalated. The bearish momentum is driven by accelerating oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz as US-Iran tensions ease. US crude inventories fell for the ninth straight week to their lowest since October 1984, yet prices continue to slide—a sign that supply fears are fading fast. Gold is hovering near the $4,000 psychological level, with RSI at 28 suggesting oversold conditions but no firm rebound yet.

🔴 Bearish for oil as Strait flows normalize.

🟡 Gold neutral but vulnerable below $4,100.

🔥 Quick Takes

Energy

- Morgan Stanley: Expects Q3 2026 TTF gas prices at €50/MWh, Q4 at €60/MWh → A moderate outlook. No major supply shocks expected.

- JPMorgan: Sees Brent averaging $86/bbl in Q3 2026, $80 in Q4, $78 at end-2026, and $64 on average in 2027 → A bearish long-term view. Prices are expected to drift lower.

- Sources: Russia seeking 50,000 tons of gasoline from Kazakhstan to ease domestic fuel shortages → A sign that Russian refining is under strain. Diesel and gasoline markets are watching.

- US crude inventories fell for the 9th straight week to the lowest since October 1984. SPR stocks hit their lowest since June 1983. → A bullish signal for oil, yet prices are falling as supply fears fade.

- Canadian auto research group: Q1 gasoline consumption hit a record high → Strong demand in North America. A modest bullish signal.

- US Energy Secretary Wright: SPR could reach 500 million barrels through innovative refilling methods → A long-term goal. Not an immediate price driver.

- Data center demand will double Australian electricity needs by 2050 → A structural demand shift. Power prices may rise.

- ADNOC LNG vessels reappear in the Persian Gulf; shipping transparency is gradually returning → More LNG supply is coming. Bearish for gas.

- Saudi government: April merchandise exports rose 9.3% year-on-year; oil exports up 11.7% → Higher oil prices are boosting Saudi revenues.

Metals & Mining

- Indonesia mining ministry: No decision yet on 2026 nickel ore production quotas. Government needs to ensure ore production aligns with downstream demand. → A wait-and-see stance. Nickel supply outlook remains uncertain.

Agriculture

- Vietnam state media: H1 rice exports expected to rise 5.7% year-on-year to 5 million tons → Strong export demand. Global rice supply remains tight.

Geopolitics

- Five South Korean vessels have transited the Strait of Hormuz → Traffic is normalizing. More ships are moving.

- Iran Revolutionary Guard warns: Uncoordinated Strait transits are "unacceptable and dangerous" → A warning shot. The Strait is open but not without risks.

Other

- Japan: 6.9 magnitude earthquake off Iwate coast. No nuclear facility abnormalities, no casualties reported. → No market impact.

- Venezuela: 7.5 magnitude earthquake. → No market impact reported.

💡 Technical Analysis

Source: Investing.com – Prices as of Jun 25, 2026 04:08 AM (GMT-4:00)

WTI Crude – $69.83

WTI extended its decline to around $69, returning to pre-Middle East war levels. The bearish momentum is driven by accelerating oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. On the daily chart, price is trading below the 50-day and 100-day SMAs, keeping the broader bias bearish. RSI at 40.9 is neutral but trending lower. MACD remains negative. The breakdown below $70 could open the door to further downside. Support is near $68.90. Resistance is at $70.18 (R1).

Gold – $4,000

Gold is hovering near the $4,000 psychological level after rebounding from November 2025 lows. A modest USD pullback is offering some support. Technically, price remains well below the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart ($4,258), keeping the near-term bias bearish. RSI at 28 is in oversold territory, suggesting the pace of decline could slow. However, MACD remains negative. Any recovery above $4,000 could face fresh selling near $4,065-$4,070, with resistance at $4,100. A sustained reclaim of the 100-period SMA is needed to ease bearish pressure.

🔮 What to Watch This Week

- 🇺🇸 US PCE inflation data – key for Fed expectations

- 🛢️ OPEC+ meeting – any output policy changes?

- 🇮🇷 Strait of Hormuz traffic – more vessels transiting?

- 🇨🇳 China manufacturing data – demand signals

- 🇯🇵 Japan earthquake aftermath – any supply chain impact?