Daily Forex Highlights Jun 03

🎯 Top Story

What happened: Eurozone inflation exceeded 3 percent for the first time since 2023, strengthening the case for an ECB rate hike in June.

Why it matters: The ECB has been signaling a June move for weeks. This data all但 removes any doubt. A hike is now almost certain.

Market impact: 🟢 Bullish for the euro. The market is fully pricing a June hike.

Dollar

🇺🇸 US April JOLTS job openings rise to near two-year high → Labor market remains tight. The Fed has no reason to cut rates.
🇮🇳 Trader: RBI may sell dollars to limit rupee weakness → Intervention signs. The rupee is under pressure.
🗣️ Fed's Hammack: The Fed may need to act quickly on high inflation → A hawkish signal. Rate cuts are not coming.

🗣️ ECB official: Timely response to inflation is critical. A June hike would be an insurance hike. An Iran peace deal would not affect the case for a hike. The ECB will do what is needed. Markets expect action. → A very clear hawkish message. The ECB is ready to move.
📈 Eurozone inflation tops 3% for first time since 2023 → See Top Story.
💶 ECB: Forex reserves up 1.8 billion euros to 344.2 billion euros → A minor data point. No market impact.

🇮🇩 Indonesian rupiah falls 0.5% to record low → Pressure is mounting. Bank Indonesia may need to intervene.
🇩🇰 Denmark central bank: No FX intervention in May → A hands-off approach. The krone is stable.
🇨🇳 PBOC nets 177.6 billion yuan withdrawal via reverse repos → Liquidity is being drained. A slight tightening signal.
🇬🇧 BOE's Greene: The case for raising key rates is strengthening → A hawkish tilt. The BOE is moving closer to a hike.
🇯🇵 Japan finance minister Katayama: Agrees with BOJ governor on multiple issues → A signal of policy coordination. No conflict between government and central bank.
🇨🇭 Swiss National Bank governor Schlegel: No specific exchange rate target; willingness to intervene is increasing → A verbal warning. The SNB is watching the franc closely.
🇮🇱 Bank of Israel governor Yaron: Falling inflation expectations support more expansionary policy; pace of adjustment can accelerate → A dovish tilt. Rate cuts may come sooner.

Resistance: 1.1622 (R1) / 1.1628 (R2) / 1.1633 (R3) → Need to clear R1 for any upside

Support: 1.1611 (S1) / 1.1606 (S2) / 1.1600 (S3) → Break below S1 opens S2

Call: Strong Sell – MAs: 0 Buy / 12 Sell. Indicators: 0 Buy / 9 Sell. RSI at 40.7.

Resistance: 1.3458 (R1) / 1.3464 (R2) / 1.3475 (R3) → Clear R1 for upside

Support: 1.3441 (S1) / 1.3430 (S2) / 1.3424 (S3) → Break below S1 signals weakness

Call: Neutral – MAs: 6 Buy / 6 Sell. Indicators: 3 Buy / 5 Sell. RSI at 46.7.

Resistance: 0.7895 (R1) / 0.7900 (R2) / 0.7905 (R3) → Clear R1 for more upside

Support: 0.7885 (S1) / 0.7880 (S2) / 0.7875 (S3) → Hold above S1 keeps bull case

Call: Strong Buy – MAs: 12 Buy / 0 Sell. Indicators: 9 Buy / 0 Sell. RSI at 68.2. STOCHRSI at 100 is overbought.