Gold at $4,150? Goldman Sees a Tougher Road Ahead

Goldman Sachs has cut its 2026 gold price target by $500. Central banks are still buying, but higher US interest rates could make it harder for gold to push higher.

Gold's rally is facing a tougher test.

Goldman Sachs has lowered its year-end 2026 gold forecast from $4,650 to $4,150 an ounce, and cut its 2027 target from $5,400 to $4,800.

The shift comes as Goldman expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates again in December. Higher interest rates and Treasury yields tend to weigh on gold, which pays no interest and becomes less attractive compared with yield-bearing assets.

Central bank demand remains strong, though. Goldman expects central banks to buy around 60 tonnes of gold per month in both 2026 and 2027.

But strong official-sector demand may not be enough to drive another major rally if private investors continue to pull back.

What could move gold next?

The dollar and US Treasury yields are worth watching. If both move higher on stronger economic data or a more hawkish Fed, gold could face further selling pressure. A softer rate outlook, on the other hand, could give prices room to recover.

For gold traders, the question is whether central-bank buying can keep supporting prices while higher rates weigh on investment demand. That's the balance the market will have to work through.