Morning Brief: US Equities Deliver Strongest Q2 Performance Since 2020, SOX Index Rallies 88% Quarter-To-Date

Key Snapshot

📈 The S&P 500 posted a 14.87% Q2 gain while the Nasdaq jumped 21.41%, marking their best quarterly run since 2020.

🛢️ WTI crude fell 18.52% and Brent shed 19.97% in June, the steepest monthly drop for oil benchmarks since 2022.

🇯🇵 The yen slid past 162 to hit a 40-year low; Japan’s finance minister struck a restrained tone with no clear near-term intervention signals.

I. Market Outlook

Core Events

On Q2’s final trading session, steady US labor metrics and improved consumer sentiment buoyed US stocks. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq wrapped up their strongest quarter since 2020, climbing 14.87% and 21.41% respectively. Regulatory filings revealed Trump netted over $1 bln from crypto ventures in 2025, with heavy positioning in large-cap US tech names.

Market Reaction

July WTI crude settled 1.77% lower at $69.50/bbl, logging an 18.52% monthly loss. August Brent crude edged down 0.31% to $72.92/bbl, down 19.97% for June. Spot gold dipped 0.18% to $4,008.97/oz, with a 10.65% monthly decline. The US Dollar Index ticked up to 101.187.

Exclusive Insight

June’s Nasdaq pullback was a healthy round of profit-taking alongside a reset of rate expectations, rather than a full trend reversal. The yen’s break below 162 underscores the ineffectiveness of the BOJ’s verbal intervention, as traders keep testing the central bank’s hard intervention line. News of Trump’s $1 bln crypto windfall will draw renewed political scrutiny across digital asset markets.

II. Overnight Market Performance

Summary

US equities advanced on the quarter’s closing session, with the SOX semiconductor index rising nearly 4%. The yen slumped past 162 to its weakest level in four decades.

— US Equities:

S&P 500: +0.79% close at 7,499.36, -1.06% MoM June, +14.87% Q2

Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.26% close at 52,319.20, +2.52% MoM June, +12.90% Q2

Nasdaq Composite: +1.52% close at 26,231.72, -2.81% MoM June, +21.41% Q2

💡 The S&P 500 and Nasdaq notched their top quarterly returns since 2020, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 88% in Q2 for an all-time quarterly high. June traded in a V-shaped pattern: gains early in the month, a mid-month pullback driven by hawkish Fed rhetoric, and a late-month rebound supported by quarter-end rebalancing and solid jobs data.

— European Equities:

STOXX Europe 600: +0.88% close at 641.73, +2.51% MoM June, +10.05% Q2

💡 European stocks posted moderate Q2 gains. Weak regional growth and ECB hike bets capped valuations, yet fading geopolitical risk premiums underpinned broad recovery.

— Fixed Income:

US 10-year Treasury yield: +5.72 bps to 4.4316%, flat MoM June, +11.70 bps Q2

💡 Quarter-end portfolio rebalancing lifted Treasury yields. The upward rate trend through Q2 reflects markets fully pricing an extended high-rate Fed cycle.

— Commodities:

Spot gold: -0.18% to $4,008.97/oz, -10.65% MoM June, -14.31% Q2

Spot silver: +0.62% to $58.6190/oz, -21.71% MoM June, -19.74% Q2

July WTI crude futures: -1.77% close at $69.50/bbl, -18.52% MoM June, -14.86% Q2

August Brent crude futures: -0.31% close at $72.92/bbl, -19.97% MoM June, -19.13% Q2

💡 Oil benchmarks lost nearly 20% over Q2, weighed by unimpeded Strait of Hormuz shipping and persistent demand weakness fears. Gold fell 14.31% this quarter amid three concurrent bearish catalysts: a stronger US dollar, erased geopolitical risk premiums, and firm Fed hike pricing.

— Foreign Exchange:

US Dollar Index: +0.08% to 101.187

EUR/USD: 1.1348

USD/JPY: 161.74

💡 The US Dollar Index stabilized around 101. After hitting an intraday low of 162, the yen trimmed losses to settle at 161.74.

— Crypto Assets:

Bitcoin slumped 2.5% to an intraday trough of $58,200; Ethereum dropped 2.6%

💡 Bitcoin slipped below the $60,000 mark, pressured by quarter-end profit-taking plus fresh regulatory headlines tied to Trump’s disclosed crypto earnings.

III. Macro News

💰 Regulatory filings confirm Trump generated over $1 bln in crypto venture proceeds during 2025, with heavy allocations to top US tech megacaps

US official disclosures show Trump earned more than $1 bln from crypto businesses in 2025, with his investment portfolio heavily tilted toward leading US technology giants.

Insight: Having shifted from vocal crypto critic to a major beneficiary of digital assets, Trump’s holdings will spur deeper market scrutiny over alignment between his policy stances and personal financial interests.

📊 US May JOLTS job openings edged up to 7.59 mln, above consensus estimates, signaling sustained labor market resilience

Insight: Higher-than-expected job vacancies confirm underlying strength in the labor pool, removing urgency for the Fed to cut rates. Solid employment figures remain the core anchor for lingering hike expectations.

🕊️ Fresh Middle East twists emerge: Qatar denied arranging high-level US-Iran talks in Doha, while Israeli forces launched multi-front raids. Reports also indicate Oman facilitates Iranian transit fees for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Insight: Qatar’s denial eliminates a direct diplomatic channel for bilateral US-Iran dialogue. Oman’s transit fee arrangement is a classic Gulf hedging tactic, tacitly acknowledging Iran’s de facto control over strait maritime traffic.

🇯🇵 The yen breached 162 to a 40-year record low; Japan’s finance minister offered muted commentary, with intervention odds unlikely to rise ahead of July 4

The yen hit its weakest level since 1986 after breaking 162. Japan’s finance minister delivered restrained remarks, flagging July 4 as a key monitoring date.

Insight: With the yen plumbing four-decade lows, verbal intervention from the BOJ has proven entirely ineffective. Traders are actively testing the central bank’s intervention trigger, with the July 4 US Independence Day holiday viewed as a likely intervention window.

IV. Corporate News

🤖 Anthropic launches Claude Sonnet 5 with upgraded autonomous agent capabilities, targeting enterprise AI automation markets

— Boasting improved cost-performance ratios and advanced agent functionality, Anthropic is shifting its strategic focus from pure model benchmark competition to scalable enterprise AI deployment. Enterprise workflow automation has become the next high-stakes competitive frontier for AI developers.

🏭 Industry reports suggest Samsung may resume mass production of its 1.4nm manufacturing process in 2029, creating diversified advanced-node supply options for Apple

— A 2029 restart of 1.4nm mass production will restore Samsung’s competitiveness in cutting-edge process technology. Apple’s foundry negotiations with Intel and Samsung will gain greater leverage as additional advanced manufacturing capacity comes online.

💾 SK Hynix plans to place orders for semiconductor testing equipment worth up to KRW 400 trln (~$3 bln)

— Massive equipment procurement from SK Hynix acts as a forward leading indicator of capacity expansion. The $3 bln equipment order signals accelerated fab output ramp-ups over coming quarters.

V. Key Focus For Today

📊 Final June manufacturing PMI prints for the US, Eurozone, Japan and UK: Synchronized gauge of global factory activity, tracking marginal demand improvement following crude oil’s sharp pullback.

📋 US June ADP private payroll change: Leading pre-NFP signal that will reshape market Fed rate pricing ahead of Friday’s official jobs report.

🇪🇺 Eurozone June CPI inflation data: Released during the annual ECB Central Bank Forum, directly altering market forecasts for the ECB’s July policy decision.

🏛️ Joint remarks from Walsh alongside central bank chiefs of Europe, UK and Canada: Walsh’s maiden high-profile international public appearance will dominate global market attention.

🛢️ US weekly EIA crude oil inventory change: Inventory readings will steer near-term oil price sentiment amid extended downward pressure on crude benchmarks.