Key Snapshot

🛑 Trump says no final deal has been reached between the US and Iran. The White House rejects Iranian media reports of a framework agreement, triggering a sharp drop in oil prices.

📈 Dow Jones rises 0.36% to a record closing high. S&P 500 and Nasdaq eke out modest gains to hit new peaks, while the semiconductor index falls over 1%.

🛢️ WTI crude closes 5.55% lower at $88.68 per barrel. Brent crude slips 5.31% to $94.29 per barrel.

🏛️ Fed Governor Cook favors holding interest rates steady, but stands ready to hike rates if needed.

I. Market Outlook

Core Events

Trump notes unresolved issues remain in US-Iran peace talks. The White House denies claims from Iran’s state TV that the two sides have struck a framework deal to reopen shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz and lift the blockade within one month. Trump adds Iran seeks to end the conflict, yet its proposed terms are unacceptable to Washington.

Fed Governor Cook states short-term rates should stay unchanged for now. Amid rising prices driven by tariffs, the Middle East conflict and booming AI investment, she is prepared to raise rates when necessary.

Exclusive Insight

Oil prices tumbled after the White House denied the deal reports. Markets appear to interpret the denial as a sign that a formal agreement is drawing near.

Cook’s stance — keeping rates steady for now while leaving room for hikes — represents a neutral-to-hawkish stance widely adopted by the Fed under the current leadership.

The divergence between Micron’s 3.6% gain and the semiconductor index’s 1% decline shows AI-driven optimism remains strong for memory chips, while near-term expectations for GPUs and CPUs have been fully priced in.

Seagate’s CEO remarks that pricier NAND flash will boost HDD competitiveness further validate structural opportunities across the memory sector.

II. Overnight Market Action

Summary

Oil prices plummet following the White House’s denial of the US-Iran deal reports. US equities narrowly set new records, with Micron hitting fresh highs against the broader market trend.

US Equities

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: +182.60 points (+0.36%) to 50,644.28
• S&P 500: +1.24 points (+0.02%) to 7,520.36
• Nasdaq Composite: +18.55 points (+0.07%) to 26,674.74

💡 S&P 500 and Nasdaq briefly turned negative after the official denial before closing at new highs. The semiconductor sector retreated over 1%. Qualcomm fell more than 6%, and Nvidia extended losses for four straight sessions post-earnings. Micron climbed 3.6% to a new peak, highlighting a growing divide between memory chips and logic chips.

European Equities

• STOXX 600: +0.03% to 628.18
• France CAC 40: +0.43%
• Germany DAX: -0.03%

💡 European equities traded within a tight range. Oil price swings driven by US-Iran developments had limited impact on regional stocks, as investors wait for concrete updates on potential deals.

Fixed Income

• US 10-year Treasury yield: -1.4 bps to 4.477%
• US 30-year Treasury yield: -1.6 bps to 5.009%
• US 2-year Treasury yield: -1.7 bps to 4.033%

💡 US Treasury yields edged lower across all tenors. Markets balanced Governor Cook’s hawkish remarks on potential rate hikes against easing inflation expectations from falling oil prices.

Commodities

• July WTI crude: -5.55% to $88.68/bbl
• July Brent crude: -5.31% to $94.29/bbl
• May COMEX gold: -1.18% to $4,447.5/oz
• May COMEX silver: -2.24% to $74.599/oz

💡 Oil prices declined despite the deal denial, with WTI falling below $89. Investors are pricing in an eventual truce. Gold slid to $4,447.5, pressured by higher real rate expectations and fading geopolitical risk premiums.

Currencies

• USD/JPY: -0.14% to 159.51, the lowest level since April 30
• EUR/USD: -0.03% to 1.1624
• GBP/USD: -0.13% to 1.3427

💡 The yen weakened to a near one-month low at 159.51, drawing close to the 160 intervention threshold. The Bank of Japan’s potential market intervention will be a key focus for the week.

Cryptocurrencies

• Bitcoin: Trades between $75,000 and $78,000, closing at $75,818.36, down over 1.6%
• Ethereum: Down over 1.5% at $2,072

💡 Bitcoin moves sideways without clear directional catalysts. While risk appetite supported US stocks, digital assets remain in consolidation.

III. Macro News

🏛️ Fed Governor Cook: Rates to stay steady for now, but hikes are on the table if needed Cook notes tariffs, the Middle East conflict and robust AI investment have stoked inflation risks, making rate hikes a viable policy option.

Insight: Cook is the first Fed official in the current cycle to explicitly signal readiness for rate increases. Her neutral-to-hawkish stance warrants close attention, as the probability of future hikes cannot be ruled out.

🇪🇺 ECB Governing Council Member Pereira: Middle East tensions pose major upside risks to inflation. June policy meeting will assess second-round inflation effects Pereira adds that shipping operations will take time to fully normalize even if the strait reopens.

Insight: Pereira’s comments align with ECB President Lagarde’s views on lagged inflation impacts. A June rate hike is highly likely, and markets will watch whether further tightening follows in July. Second-round inflation effects will be the core deciding factor.

🇪🇺 EU governments approve legislation for the US-EU trade deal, removing import tariffs on a wide range of US goods The bill still requires approval from the European Parliament and is expected to avert threatened auto tariffs on EU vehicles by the US.

Insight: Easing US-EU trade tensions is a positive development. Tariff removal represents a compromise, while resolving non-tariff barriers such as food standards and digital taxes remains the core focus of future negotiations.

🏠 US mortgage rates climb to a nine-month high of 6.65%, fueled by inflation concerns linked to the Middle East conflict MBA data shows the 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose 9 bps to 6.65%.

Insight: Higher mortgage rates signal further cooling in the housing market. Single-family home starts already dropped 9% previously, and rising borrowing costs will continue to weigh on a housing recovery.

IV. Corporate News

💬 Meta launches paid AI chatbot services, pushing its share price up more than 4% intraday Meta is monetizing its AI capabilities. Subscription services deliver more stable revenue streams compared to advertising. A well-received paid product will reshape the company’s overall revenue structure.

☁️ Snowflake signs a $6 billion procurement deal with AWS to ramp up AI spending. Its stock surges over 30% in after-hours trading This is Snowflake’s largest cloud procurement agreement to date. The sharp after-hours rally reflects strong market confidence in AI data platforms. The firm is evolving from a pure data warehouse provider to a key AI infrastructure player.

🇰🇷 Samsung’s labor union approves a new compensation plan, offering bonuses of $400,000 per employee, only the second such case in South Korea’s history Insight: The hefty bonuses mirror the prosperity across the AI industry. Pay gaps between the chip division and consumer

electronics division will keep widening, making internal divisions within Samsung hard to bridge.

💾 Seagate CEO: Costlier NAND flash will expand HDD advantages, with ample room for gross margin growth New HAMR product Mozaic 4 has obtained customer certification, with an incremental gross margin above 70%. Bank of America lifts its price target to $900.

Insight: Seagate highlights a substitution effect: expensive NAND drives greater cost competitiveness for HDDs. A 70% incremental gross margin demonstrates strong pricing power amid tight market supply.

V. Today’s Key Focus

📊 US Q1 GDP & Core PCE Price Index: Combined growth and inflation data will shape the Fed’s assessment of stagflation risks.

📋 US April Personal Income, Personal Spending & Core PCE: Core PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Stronger-than-expected readings will boost rate hike expectations.

📉 US Initial Jobless Claims (Weekly): Marginal changes in the data will reveal whether the labor market continues to cool.

🗣️ Speeches from New York Fed’s Williams and St. Louis Fed’s Musalem: Markets watch if other Fed officials echo Cook’s hawkish remarks on potential rate hikes.