Gold At A Crossroads: Wall Street Turns Tactically Cautious But Keeps Long-Term Bullish Stance

After a sharp monthly correction through June, gold has staged a solid short-term rebound. Soft U.S. payroll data has dialed back aggressive Fed hawkish bets, lifting bullion off recent lows. Even as price sentiment has improved on near-term relief, major Wall Street institutions have turned tactically cautious, cooling their previously aggressive bull outlooks and highlighting lingering downside risks while retaining long-term secular bullish convictions.

JPMorgan Scales Back Aggressive Gold Projections

Once the most outspoken gold bull since late 2025, JPMorgan significantly revised down its gold outlook in its latest Friday research update.

“Physical gold and ETF investment demand will fall short of our earlier forecasts, capping gold’s upside through 2026. We now expect gold to trade at $4,300/oz in Q3 and $4,500/oz in Q4. Our core view remains structurally bullish but tactically cautious, with prominent downside risks instead of a full bearish reversal.”

The bank’s latest stance marks a sharp shift from its June 9 call, which targeted a $6,000/oz year-end peak. Hotter-than-expected U.S. economic data this summer could prompt early Fed hikes, pushing gold below $4,000 and triggering technical liquidations toward the $3,500–$3,600 range. A resurgent U.S. exceptionalism theme will also underpin dollar strength, creating persistent pressure on dollar-denominated gold.

JPMorgan also updated its multi-metal forecasts:

- Silver: Average $60–$65/oz, supported by normalized gold-silver ratios and easing physical market tightness

- Platinum: $1,800/oz by end-2026 and $1,950/oz by end-2027, constrained by South African supply headwinds

- Palladium: $1,350/oz by end-2026 and $1,300/oz average in 2027, in line with subdued short-term precious metal sentiment

Wall Street Consensus: Near-Term Pressure, Intact Long-Term Bull Case

Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs cut its 2026 year-end gold target from $5,400 to $4,900, after ruling out 2026 Fed rate cuts. Even so, the long-term bullish foundation remains firm. Global central banks continue purchasing around 51 tonnes of gold monthly, three times the pre-2022 average, forming a durable price floor. The recent sharp pullback is viewed as a deep correction within a secular bull trend, rather than the end of the gold rally. Elevated real yields and a stronger dollar have temporarily neutralized gold’s safe-haven appeal.

TD Securities

Senior strategist Bart Melek forecasts a two-phase gold trajectory. Prices may first break below $3,900 to complete its corrective cycle, before rebounding above $5,300 in 2027. Near-term inflation pressures and Fed hawkishness limit upside, while fading geopolitical risks, eventual rate cuts and uninterrupted central bank buying will drive the next leg of the bull rally next year.

Barclays

Barclays maintained stable gold targets at $4,791 for end-2026 and $4,900 for end-2027. Current prices near $4,150 offer improved risk-reward metrics for dip buyers. The recent pullback was predictable, driven by overstretched technical positioning and excessive hawkish repricing in real yields.

OCBC

Senior precious metals strategist Christopher Wong pointed out that gold needs at least one positive catalyst to sustain meaningful rebounds: declining real yields, a weaker U.S. dollar, or fading Fed hawkish expectations. Without these improvements, institutional investors will continue selling strength, keeping gold stuck in prolonged consolidation below recent highs.

Wall Street’s overall stance remains consistent across institutions: gold faces tangible near-term downside risks from higher-for-longer rates and firm dollar strength. Nevertheless, robust central bank reserve accumulation and eventual monetary policy easing will support a strong rebound and extend the secular bull market into 2027.