Hormuz Traffic Stuck Near 94% Below Normal Despite Peace Talk Optimism

Ship-tracking data shows Gulf shipping traffic was essentially unchanged Tuesday, underscoring that ground-level activity has yet to reflect the diplomatic optimism pressuring oil prices lower this week.

Strait of Hormuz — still severely constrained:

1. Only 8 vessels transited Tuesday (5 tankers, 3 bulk carriers), per Kpler data — flat versus Monday
2. Compare that to the roughly 130-140 ships that typically passed through before the US-Israel-Iran war began February 28, when Iran moved to close the strait — traffic remains roughly 94% below pre-war norms
3. 6 vessels entered, while a gas carrier and tanker exited

A notable signal: ADNOC's Mubaraz LNG tanker reappeared outside Hormuz Tuesday, having loaded at Das Island on July 14 and last tracked inside the strait on July 16. LSEG data shows it's now off India's west coast, bound for the Dahej terminal in Gujarat with an August 5 arrival. This marks the third such Das Island cargo exit since the war started — prior two went to China and India. ADNOC declined to comment on vessel movements, per company policy.

Bab el-Mandeb, the other key chokepoint, saw 20 crossings Tuesday (10 in, 10 out) — also unchanged from Monday.

Why this matters for traders: Qatar said Tuesday that mediators were making progress toward ending the conflict, which drove Brent below $80 for the first time since July 13. But the flat, still-depressed shipping counts suggest the market is trading headlines ahead of physical evidence — a real uptick in transits, not just diplomatic language, would be the stronger confirmation signal for sustained oil weakness. Note: vessels running with transponders off aren't captured in these counts, so actual traffic could be modestly higher than reported.